How Prediction Markets Have Changed the Landscape Around the World Cup

Few things are so easily capable of dominating everyday conversation as the FIFA World Cup, with the event garnering interest from all corners of society, including people who typically would not follow football at all yet manage to stay up to date with all the daily happenings of the tournament while it is underway.

Naturally, an event of such significant social magnitude that also happens to consist of a ludicrous number of sports matches condensed into what is relatively a very short timeframe is also, by its nature, an extremely enticing occasion for anyone interested in betting.

So, with that in mind, it is no wonder that sportsbooks and the wider gaming industry have done everything they can to capitalise on the World Cup, but this edition of the competition is unique when it comes to betting, as it is the first ever of its kind to take place in a world where prediction markets exist.

World Cup Reach and Viewership

The World Cup is well into the second half of the tournament now, with the group stage having concluded and a couple of major upsets already having taken place, as European giants Germany and the Netherlands have both been knocked out by the time of writing.

Aside from one-off major upsets, World Cups have also been a grand stage for historic underdog runs deep into the bracket, with the most recent and arguably most impressive example having been Croatia’s run all the way through to the final against France in 2018, which the Croatian national team ended up losing 4-2.

So, considering the massive stakes, historic significance, and unpredictability of the World Cup, it naturally lends itself to being a massive event for the gaming and betting industry as well.

FIFA’s 2022 World Cup audience report states that the total reach of the France vs Argentina final in Qatar was 1.42 billion viewers, which is a ludicrous number, but shows just how far the reach of the beautiful game’s greatest competition really goes.

World Cup Prediction Market Activity

Much like the World Cup, which has been all anyone seems to want to talk about for the past month or so, prediction markets over the past couple of years have largely dominated discourse across the iGaming industry.

Prior to the World Cup really kicking off, it was touted as the sporting event with the largest betting volume of all time. Now that we are well into the whole thing, reports indicate that prediction markets have taken a sizeable cut of the pie.

Looking at some of the larger prediction markets, one can see that trading volume on the 2026 World Cup has already exceeded $5 billion, and that number is only going to keep rising as we get deeper into the knockout stages, where viewership per match has historically increased exponentially.

Prediction market operators such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have all shown impressive numbers with event contracts opened in relation to the World Cup.

There is currently a contract trading on Polymarket regarding who people predict will ultimately be the winner of the tournament, with a betting volume of $3.5 billion, and there is still plenty of time for that number to rise higher, as the final is set to take place on 19 July.

In case you are interested, the most popular prediction according to Polymarket and Kalshi is that Didier Deschamps’ France squad, led by captain Kylian Mbappe and frontmen Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele, will put a third star on the national team jerseys.

Argentina and Spain trail in the podium spots, with England currently listed as the fourth favourite.

Prediction market contract options for the World Cup go beyond betting on individual matches and on who the champion nation will ultimately be.

Other contracts with high market volumes include predicting the Golden Ball winner, which is the award given to the best player at the tournament, as well as the Golden Boot winner, for the most goals scored, and the Golden Glove, which is the award given to the best goalkeeper.

Additionally, there are also contracts for predicting which nation will win the Fair Play Award, which is given to the team that made it to the knockout stage and had the best fair play record, generally meaning the lowest number of bookings, or cards, given by referees.

DraftKings, a renowned sportsbook provider which has also delved into the world of prediction markets, said that the beginning of the 2026 World Cup saw it experience its biggest weekend ever, though that also coincided with the NBA Finals.

What This Means for Consumers

Ultimately, anyone interested in betting on the World Cup now has the choice of going with a traditional sportsbook or getting into the ever-growing, emergent prediction market sector.

With the United States’ CFTC continuously pushing to reaffirm its jurisdiction over prediction markets and other regions, namely Europe, indicating a growing interest in adequately setting up a proper prediction market framework, it seems that this branch in the iGaming world is here to stay and keep growing.

So, with that in mind, it might be a good idea to get a firm understanding of how prediction markets work and how you can position yourself more strongly and strategically to be ahead of the curve, especially if you feel that you can use your knowledge in niches such as football or other sports to make predictions or decisions that others might not see.

Remember to follow any age requirements to sign up for prediction markets and always bet responsibly. You should only wager money that you are prepared to lose, even if you are confident in your reasoning behind your predictions.