iGaming nel 2026: le previsioni dei giornalisti di SiGMA
As the global iGaming industry moves toward 2026, momentum is building across markets, but not always in the same direction. While some jurisdictions are tightening regulation and taxation, others are experimenting with new frameworks, technologies, and revenue models. Prediction markets, mobile-first betting, and consolidation are also reshaping how operators compete and how regulators respond.
To close out the year, SiGMA News invited its journalists to share one bold prediction for 2026, drawing on their regional expertise and on-the-ground reporting. From regulatory shake-ups in the US and Asia to mobile-led growth in Africa and technological innovation in Europe, these forecasts offer a snapshot of the pressures and opportunities likely to define the year ahead.
Americas: Tax pressure, legal scrutiny and long-awaited reform
In the United States and Brazil, fiscal considerations are expected to play an outsized role in shaping gambling policy in 2026.
Jillian Dingwal, Senior News Writer, predicts that US gambling tax rules will finally face public and legal scrutiny. She points to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which treats breaking even as a taxable win by counting phantom profits, a system she believes will prove mathematically indefensible once applied at scale.
“Expect 2026 to bring lawsuits, IRS guidance fights, and industry lobbying as the mathematical absurdity of [OBBBA] lands on the national stage.”
– Jillian Dingwal, Senior News Writer
Elsewhere in the Americas, Julia Moura, SEO Portuguese Content Writer, expects Brazil to move in two directions at once. Taxes on gambling activity are likely to increase, but she also believes that 2026 could finally see the approval of physical casino operations, a long-debated issue that would mark a major shift for Latin America’s largest economy.
“In 2026 the operation of physical casinos in Brazil will finally be approved.”
– Julia Moura, SEO Portuguese Content Writer
Across Latin America, 2026 could mark a decisive shift from rapid market expansion to regulatory and tax consolidation, according to gaming journalist Caro Vallejo, who expects governments across the region to step up enforcement and fiscal pressure on the industry.
“2026 will bring a major regulatory and tax boom across Latin America’s gaming industry.”
– Caro Vallejo, Journalist
Vallejo predicts the regulatory and tax boom that will affect both land-based casinos and iGaming operators, as policymakers seek to maximise public revenues and tighten control over a sector that has grown faster than the frameworks designed to govern it.
Shirley Pulis Xerxen, Head of News, predicts that consolidation will accelerate globally, but the trend is particularly visible in mature markets where regulatory costs continue to rise.
“2026 will be the year for consolidation.”
– Shirley Pulis Xerxen, Head of News
She believes as compliance obligations grow more complex, mega-operators are likely to absorb smaller brands or push them out altogether, further concentrating market power.
Asia: Regulation tightens as grey markets come under pressure
Across Asia, journalists anticipate a gradual shift away from fragmented or informal oversight toward clearer regulatory frameworks, driven largely by fiscal pressure and concerns over illegal gambling.
Jenny Ortiz-Bolivar, SiGMA World Asia Lead Senior Journalist & Reporter, believes that by 2026 more Asian jurisdictions will move toward regulated onshore gaming markets while narrowing the grey zone. Governments, she notes, are increasingly motivated by the need for stronger oversight, improved player protection and greater onshore participation.
“Asian jurisdictions [are likely] to refine frameworks rather than leave large parts of the market unregulated.”
– Jenny Ortiz-Bolivar, Asia Lead Senior Journalist & Reporter
However, where regulation tightens abruptly, informal markets may expand. Anchal Verma, News Writer, predicts that India will see the rise of a parallel informal iGaming economy driven by offshore betting platforms targeting Indian users, as domestic real-money gaming restrictions push demand outside legal channels.
“A parallel informal iGaming economy [in India will be] driven by unregulated offshore platforms.”
– Anchal Verma, News Writer
Sudhanshu Ranjan Pandey, News Writer, echoes this concern more broadly, arguing that outright bans often backfire. In his view, governments will increasingly be forced to reconsider prohibition in favour of clearer frameworks for iGaming and prediction markets, as bans risk driving billions in wagering activity offshore and beyond regulatory reach.
“Prohibition only drives users toward offshore platforms.”
– Sudhanshu Ranjan Pandey, News Writer
Elsewhere in South Asia, Rajashree Seal, Senior News Writer, forecasts that Sri Lanka will introduce a digital gaming tax regime in 2026. With the Gambling Regulatory Authority now established and revenue generation a policy priority, online and offshore-facing operators are expected to face new registration and levy requirements.
“Sri Lanka is poised to formalise taxation on online gaming.”
– Rajashree Seal, Senior News Writer
Further east, Ansh Pandey, News Writer, predicts that Timor-Leste will revisit iGaming legalisation after cancelling licensing plans in 2025 due to UN concerns. In 2026, he believes the government may introduce new laws with stronger oversight mechanisms, reflecting continued interest in the sector.
“Timor-Leste hasn’t abandoned iGaming, it’s recalibrating.”
– Ansh Pandey, News Writer
Europe: Compliance, consolidation and immersive betting
In Europe, SiGMA journalists see 2026 as a year defined by tighter compliance standards and technological evolution rather than market expansion. Kateryna Skrypnyk, Slavik Journalist, predicts that the European Commission will tighten rules affecting gambling affiliates, raising transparency, reporting and due diligence requirements. While this may improve oversight, it is also expected to increase the cost of market access and squeeze smaller affiliate networks.
“Higher compliance standards will make Europe a tougher market to operate in.”
– Kateryna Skrypnyk, Slavik Journalist
At the same time, innovation is expected to reshape how betting is experienced. Tony Colapinto, Italian Journalist, believes Italy is on the verge of a breakthrough in immersive live betting.
“Immersive live betting will merge viewing and wagering into a single digital environment.”
– Tony Colapinto, Italian Journalist
Advances in ultra-low-latency streaming and interactive overlays are set to merge viewing and wagering into a single digital experience, supported by mature infrastructure and evolving consumer behaviour.
Africa: Mobile-first betting drives the next growth phase
Africa stands out as one of the few regions where growth expectations remain firmly positive. Mercy Mutiria, Senior Journalist, predicts that mobile-first iGaming will redefine Africa’s betting landscape in 2026. With smartphone adoption accelerating and 4G and 5G networks expanding, mobile engagement is expected to surpass desktop usage by a wide margin.
“Africa’s iGaming future is decisively mobile-first.”
– Mercy Mutiria, Senior Journalist
This shift, she notes, is supported by a young, mobile-native population, cheaper data costs and increasingly seamless mobile money integration, creating an ecosystem where convenience and accessibility drive sustained growth.
Prediction markets and global expansion
Beyond regional trends, several journalists highlight forces reshaping the industry at a structural level. Skrypnyk also predicts that global operators will increasingly expand into prediction markets to diversify revenue and reduce reliance on traditional sports betting margins. As competition intensifies and margins tighten, prediction markets are emerging as a strategic adjacent product rather than a niche experiment.
Neha Soni, SiGMA News Writer believes in 2026, prediction markets are expected to move decisively from the fringes of iGaming into the regulatory and political mainstream, forcing governments to determine whether they should be treated as gambling products, financial instruments, or a hybrid category that sits between the two.
“2026 will be the year prediction markets can no longer sit in regulatory limbo.”
– Neha Soni, News Writer
While adoption has gained significant traction in the United States, prediction markets are now spreading to other jurisdictions, including the UK. She believes more countries are expected to explore regulatory frameworks as governments look to cash in on growing demand. As event-based wagering expands beyond sports into elections, economic indicators and real-world outcomes, regulatory scrutiny is likely to intensify.
Garance Limouzy, News Writer, adds that if 2025 was the year prediction markets came into view, 2026 will be the year they are pushed into clearer categories. The debate, she argues, is no longer about usage, but about what these products are legally allowed to be called.
“The real question is what prediction markets are allowed to be.”
– Garance Limouzy, News Writer
As distribution deals with media and data companies expand, resistance is also hardening at state level from gambling interests and consumer watchdogs. Traditional betting operators, she notes, face a choice they can no longer avoid: adapt to prediction markets or continue fighting them as unfair competition.
At the same time, Shirley Pulis Xerxen’s consolidation forecast underscores a broader reality facing the industry: scale, capital strength and regulatory expertise are becoming decisive competitive advantages in an increasingly complex global market.
Looking ahead to 2026
By and large, SiGMA News predicts that 2026 will be less about unchecked expansion and more about structural adjustment. Regulation and taxation are tightening across key jurisdictions, grey markets continue to test enforcement limits, and technology is reshaping how players engage with betting products.
For operators, suppliers and regulators alike, the year ahead is likely to reward adaptability, not only in product design, but in compliance strategy, market entry decisions and long-term investment planning.
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