Macau delays 60% non-gaming GDP target to 2030: Report
Macau has pushed back its target for non-gaming industries to contribute around 60 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2028 to 2030 under the city’s proposed third five-year development plan.
According to a report by the Asia Gaming Brief, the revised timeline was included in the consultation draft of the Macau Economic and Social Development Plan (2026–2030), released on Wednesday. Authorities maintained the 60 per cent target but extended the timeframe by two years.
The adjustment comes as Macau continues to recover strongly from the pandemic. Gaming revenue rebounded rapidly following the reopening of borders in 2023, once again positioning casinos as the dominant contributor to the economy and public finances.
The report said that the local government stressed that diversification efforts are not aimed at reducing gaming activity. Instead, officials said the objective is to expand non-gaming sectors while allowing the casino industry to continue developing under a regulated framework.
Macau’s diversification strategy
The consultation draft places stronger emphasis on sectors tied to Macau’s 1+4 diversification strategy, including healthcare, finance, technology, conventions and exhibitions, culture, and sports. Hengqin cooperation, artificial intelligence (AI), education, and international tourism were also identified as future growth drivers.
The document does not set a direct target for reducing gaming’s share of GDP. Instead, the administration framed diversification as expanding the broader economy beyond casinos.
Last week, Sands China CEO Grant Chum said Macau’s diversification story was still developing and would require the integrated resort industry to evolve further over the next five to ten years. Speaking at the G2E Asia in Macau, Chum said future growth would depend on deeper integration between gaming, tourism, entertainment, MICE, and destination branding.
The five-year proposal also reinforced the government’s expectations for casino concessionaires to support diversification through non-gaming investments, international tourism development, local employment initiatives, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Tourism plan
According to the report, Macau plans to expand its international tourism reach by targeting Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, Portuguese-speaking countries, Europe, the United States, Spanish-speaking markets, and Muslim visitor segments. Authorities expect international visitor arrivals to grow by around 5 per cent annually between 2026 and 2030.
The draft additionally highlighted continued enforcement efforts against gaming-related crime, including illegal lending and unlawful currency exchange operations linked to gambling activities.
Analysts divided on Macau’s long-term outlook
Industry analysts said the city’s gaming sector continues to generate revenue growth, although profitability pressures and rising regional competition remain concerns.
According to Vitaly Umansky, Senior Research Analyst – Global Gaming at Seaport Research Partners, Macau’s post-pandemic recovery has shifted structurally, with investors increasingly shifting their attention to technology and artificial intelligence sectors rather than gaming stocks. He also warned that Macau could be approaching maturity as more Asian jurisdictions, including Singapore and Japan, expand their integrated resort industries.
However, George Choi, Director and Global Head of Gaming Research at Citi Research, maintained a more optimistic outlook, arguing that Macau’s penetration in mainland China remains relatively low and that demand from premium customers remains strong. Citi Research forecasts around 6 per cent gross gaming revenue growth and approximately 8 per cent EBITDA growth for Macau’s gaming industry in 2026.
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