Dutch gambling tax revenue has fallen significantly short of government forecasts despite two successive tax increases, according to a new monitoring report published by the Ministry of Finance and gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).
The report found that higher gambling taxes generated only a fraction of the additional revenue originally projected by policymakers. Officials had expected the tax increases to deliver a substantial boost to public finances, but changing market conditions and stricter player protection measures reduced the amount of taxable gambling revenue available. The findings provide the clearest indication yet of how regulatory reforms are reshaping the Dutch gambling market.
Dutch gambling tax increase misses revenue targets
The Netherlands increased its gambling tax rate in two stages over the past 18 months. The first increase took effect on 1 January 2025, when the rate rose from 30.5 per cent to 34.2 per cent. A second rise followed on 1 January 2026, lifting the rate to 37.8 per cent.
The objective was straightforward: generate additional revenue for the Dutch state. Government estimates suggested the higher rates would raise an extra €108 million in 2025 and a further €216 million in 2026 compared with previous levels.
However, the latest monitoring report paints a very different picture. According to the findings, additional gambling tax revenue reached only €2 million in 2025. For 2026, the figure is currently estimated at €57 million, well below the government’s original projections.
The report also found that higher gambling taxes reduced earnings from state-owned gambling interests, further limiting the overall financial benefit to public finances.
Shrinking tax base reduced gambling tax revenue
Researchers identified a declining tax base as the primary reason for the revenue shortfall. In the Netherlands, gambling tax is calculated using operators’ gross gaming result (GSR), which represents gambling revenue after winnings have been paid to customers.
Over the period covered by the report, several regulatory measures were introduced to strengthen player protection. While those reforms were designed to reduce gambling-related harm, they also contributed to lower gambling activity within the regulated market.
As gambling revenue fell, the amount subject to taxation also declined. The report noted that the tax increases themselves may have added further pressure. Some land-based gambling businesses reportedly closed venues or adjusted operations as profitability came under strain, reducing taxable activity even further.
Affordability rules and advertising restrictions reshape the market
The revenue shortfall comes against the backdrop of wider changes in the Dutch gambling sector. In October 2024, the Netherlands introduced stricter affordability measures aimed at protecting players from excessive gambling losses.
The Dutch government raised gambling taxes to try to make quick revenue. Barely got TWO PERCENT of their goal.
— Carolina Derby (@CarolinaDerby) June 24, 2026
Anyone noticing in North Carolina?
Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Yields Just €2m of €108m Goal in 2025https://t.co/XTHncaauq5
Monthly net deposit limits were set at €300 for young adults and €700 for players aged 24 and over. Customers wishing to exceed those thresholds must complete affordability assessments and provide evidence that higher spending levels are financially sustainable.
The market has also faced increasingly restrictive advertising rules. Television programme sponsorships by gambling companies were banned from July 2024, while sponsorship agreements involving sports clubs, teams and kits were prohibited from July 2025.
Together, these measures have altered the operating environment for licensed gambling businesses and reduced opportunities to attract new customers.
State-owned operators see lower returns
The report highlighted the impact of the tax increases on state-linked gambling operators, including Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij. Lower profitability among these businesses reduced the financial returns that would normally flow back to the Dutch state.
As a result, part of the additional gambling tax collected was effectively offset by lower income generated through government-owned gambling interests.
The findings suggest that raising gambling taxes does not necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in overall government revenue when operator earnings decline at the same time.
Last year, Netherlands’ gambling regulator issued a warning about the impact of the tax increase, saying it has not achieved its intended goal and has instead weakened the legal gambling sector. The KSA had directly challenged the effectiveness of the government’s fiscal strategy.
No clear conclusions on market size and channelisation
Researchers also examined whether the tax increases affected market size, channelisation rates and contributions to sport and charitable causes. However, the report concluded that it was not possible to isolate the impact of the tax changes from other regulatory developments introduced during the same period.
Alongside higher tax rates, the Dutch gambling market experienced affordability checks, advertising restrictions and broader consumer protection reforms. Because several major policy changes occurred simultaneously, researchers said no reliable conclusions could yet be drawn about the specific effect of the tax increases on market growth, channelisation or contributions to charities and sport.
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