Hong Kong has suspended plans to introduce regulated basketball betting, with officials warning that the rapid rise of prediction markets could drive more users toward illegal gambling activity.
According to the city’s public broadcaster RTHK, the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau said the government would pause the rollout to conduct further studies on how prediction markets are reshaping the betting landscape. “If basketball betting is introduced under the prevailing circumstances, it could lead more people to participate in illegal bets in prediction markets,” a spokesman said, as quoted by RTHK.
Officials from the bureau noted that prediction markets recorded a global transaction volume of $64 billion in 2025. They warned that the structure of these platforms introduces uncertainty into existing gambling systems.
The move comes seven months after Hong Kong’s legislature approved amendments to legalise basketball betting under a regulated model. The Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) was positioned as the city’s sole licensed operator, with a 50 percent duty on net stake receipts. Government projections last year estimated annual additional tax revenues of between HKD1.5 billion ($191.5 million) and HKD2 billion ($255.4 million).
The HKJC said it respects the government’s decision and will cooperate with further reviews.
Legal framework in place, but rollout delayed
In 2025, Hong Kong’s Legislative Council passed the Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill, paving the way for licensed basketball wagering under strict control. The initiative was designed not primarily as a revenue driver, but as a channel to redirect demand away from illegal betting networks.
The report said that government estimates cited during the legislative process suggested that unregulated basketball betting turnover could reach HKD90 billion ($11.5 billion) annually. Projections from the HKJC indicated that a legal framework could generate substantial turnover and tax contributions once fully implemented.
Prediction markets reshape gambling debate
The government’s concerns reflect a broader global debate over the role of prediction markets and their overlap with traditional betting.
In a SiGMA News exclusive, Alice Li, Investment Partner at Foresight Ventures, stressed that while sports-related contracts dominate activity, the two sectors remain fundamentally distinct.
“Sports betting is primarily entertainment-driven. Prediction markets are information-driven, designed to aggregate collective intelligence and price real-world uncertainty,” Li explained. She said that prediction markets extend beyond sports into economics, policy, and corporate outcomes.
“Regulators should focus less on absolute volume and more on market quality indicators,” she added.
She also highlighted warning signs of market imbalance, including sudden volume spikes and hype-driven participation, which could signal increased speculative activity.
Despite rapid growth, forecast to rival the global betting industry, experts expect prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks to evolve in parallel rather than converge into a single category.
NBA sees prediction markets as betting
Meanwhile, in March, the National Basketball Association also moved to treat prediction markets as part of the broader sports betting ecosystem.
Commissioner Adam Silver said the league is looking at prediction markets essentially the same way it is looking at sports betting markets or sports betting companies, placing them under existing integrity frameworks.
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