Israel charges reservist and civilian over Polymarket bets
Israeli authorities have charged a military reservist and a civilian in a case involving betting on the Polymarket platform. According to Israel’s Ministry of Defence, they used classified information related to military operations to place bets.
Polymarket is a global prediction-market platform that allows users to trade cryptocurrency-based contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events. It is already under regulatory pressure in Europe. In Portugal, for example, where betting on political events is prohibited, internet service providers have been advised to block access to Polymarket.
What Israel’s security authorities say
Israel’s Ministry of Defence, together with the Shin Bet (Shabak) security service and the police, issued a statement saying several people were detained in connection with the betting case, including reservists who are individuals formally enrolled in the military reserve. One reservist and a civilian were then charged with using privileged access to non-public information obtained through service to predict events and make a profit. A court imposed a gag order on parts of the case, so the available details remain limited to official statements.
What investigators know so far
Reuters reports that the case centres on the use of restricted-access information to place bets on outcomes related to military operations. The reservist allegedly passed classified information to the civilian, after which bets were placed on Polymarket. Israeli media reports also reference charges related to bribery and obstruction of justice.
Some reports cite estimated profits of around $150,000. However, due to the gag order, prosecutors have not disclosed the specific markets involved or the mechanics of the episodes, citing the need to avoid harming the proceedings and related checks.
Betting on war: ethical or not?
Even without reference to any specific case, prediction markets focused on military events are widely seen as highly problematic: the risk of insider information is higher than in sports or business, and the consequences extend beyond financial harm. In the Israeli case, the core allegation is the use of non-public data by individuals who had access to sensitive information through their service roles.
SiGMA has previously examined the ethical and legal debate around how prediction markets can turn conflicts into tradeable contracts. For instance, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has described prediction markets as a kind of news channel, but has argued that it is unethical to bet money on contract killings. A user on X also wrote that betting turns wars into football matches, which is ethically unacceptable.
Today, Polymarket users can place bets, for example, on which Ukrainian cities Russian forces might enter or whether the United States will strike Iran.
How conflicts affect the industry
The Polymarket story is unfolding in a wider context in which regional conflicts and sudden escalations increase the industry’s sensitivity to compliance, sources of funds and reputational risk. Heightened tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States have also affected the iGaming market. For example, rising energy prices have increased the cost of online gaming infrastructure. The United States, a long-standing venue for many major conferences and industry summits, has faced heightened domestic security concerns as well.
Cases involving classified information, crypto settlement and public prediction markets push regulators and market participants to shift focus from isolated incidents to systemic requirements – anomaly monitoring, tighter controls over access to sensitive data, and stricter market entry rules for products.
This article was first published in Russian on 16 February 2026.
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