New South Wales is expected to record strong growth in gambling tax revenue over the next four years, with the state government forecasting receipts to rise from AU$3.8 billion ($2.62 billion) in 2025-26 to AU$4.7 billion ($3.24 billion) by 2029-30, according to the 2026-27 state budget.
The projections highlight the continuing importance of gambling taxes to the state’s finances, particularly revenue generated from gaming machines in hotels and pubs, commonly known in Australia as poker machines.
Gaming machine revenue drives growth
Budget papers show that tax revenue from gaming machines located in hotels and pubs is expected to increase significantly during the forecast period. Revenue from these venues is projected to rise from AU$1.6 billion ($1.10 billion) in the current financial year to AU$2.2 billion ($1.52 billion) by 2029-30.
The New South Wales Treasury expects hotel gaming machine revenue to grow at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent. At the same time, profits generated by hotel venues are forecast to increase by around 8 per cent a year through the latter part of the decade.
The figures indicate that gaming machines will remain one of the largest contributors to gambling-related tax income in the state.
Budget forecasts spark fresh reform debate
The revenue projections have renewed discussion about gambling policy in New South Wales.
Several advocacy groups have questioned the state’s growing reliance on gambling tax income, arguing that the forecasts sit alongside ongoing discussions about reducing gambling harm and strengthening industry regulation.
The latest budget estimates have prompted renewed scrutiny of the government’s approach to gambling reform, particularly as gaming machine revenue is expected to continue expanding over the coming years.
Advocacy groups raise concerns
Tim Costello, chief advocate for the Alliance for Gambling Reform, criticised the forecasts and said the projected increase in gambling tax revenue represented a departure from expectations held by some voters before the 2023 state election.
Meanwhile, NSW Greens gambling harm reduction spokesperson Cate Faehrmann said the budget figures reflected a lack of progress on broader reform measures. She also pointed to the continuation of tax concessions available to clubs.
The comments add to a long-running debate in New South Wales over the balance between gambling tax revenue and efforts to reduce gambling-related harm.
Government defends current approach
NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the revenue forecasts are based on existing policy settings and do not attempt to estimate the impact of any future regulatory changes.
According to Mookhey, the budget projections reflect current market conditions and available economic data rather than potential policy decisions that may be introduced later.
Premier Chris Minns also defended the government’s record on gambling regulation, highlighting a number of measures already implemented.
These include a reduction in the statewide cap on gaming machines, the removal of exemptions from mandatory shutdown periods, and lower cash-input limits for new gaming machines from July.
Outlook for sector
The latest budget forecasts suggest gambling taxes will continue to provide a significant source of revenue for New South Wales over the remainder of the decade.
With gaming machine revenue expected to account for a substantial share of that growth, gambling policy is likely to remain a closely watched issue among industry stakeholders, policymakers and advocacy groups as the state balances revenue generation with ongoing regulatory objectives.
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