Prediction markets in Australia are drawing scrutiny from regulators as offshore platforms take bets on elections, economic outcomes and even political speech, raising new gambling and regulatory concerns. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has already moved against one major platform in 2025, while the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) told SiGMA News it is monitoring the sector amid questions over whether these speculative contracts should be treated as gambling, financial products, or something in between.
Users are not only trading on elections and economic outcomes but also wagering on highly specific political events, including whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will say certain words in parliament. One recent market asked users to predict whether Albanese would mention terms such as Iran, Trump, TAFE or tax cuts during question time, with around $13,000 traded on that single contract. Trading data linked to another market titled ‘Who will win the next Australian House election?’ shows how prediction markets in Australia can rapidly reprice political outcomes, with the implied probability for the Australian Labor Party falling from around 75 percent in December to 48 percent by late May, while the Liberal-National Coalition rose to 65.7 percent. The markets appeared on Kalshi.
Rival platform Polymarket has also seen significant trading linked to Australian events despite neither platform being licensed to operate in Australia. The rise of prediction markets in Australia is drawing attention from regulators and gambling reform groups, who warn that the regulatory framework may not yet be equipped to deal with these emerging products.
Prediction markets in Australia expand into politics and economics
Trading activity linked to Australian events has accelerated across major offshore prediction markets. As reported by the Guardian, Polymarket users reportedly traded nearly $500,000 in contracts tied to the Farrer byelection, while Kalshi handled close to $100,000 on the same race.
Other contracts have focused on Reserve Bank interest rate decisions, Australian unemployment data, whether Anthony Albanese will remain prime minister by year-end and political speech during parliamentary proceedings.
The growth of prediction markets in Australia highlights how political, economic and cultural outcomes are increasingly being turned into speculative tradeable contracts. This is how prediction markets rose to fame during the 2024 US elections. Betting on the 2024 US presidential election became a booming industry, with estimates suggesting that it handled well over $2.4 billion to $4 billion in total capital activity.
Australia prediction markets blur line between finance and betting
Unlike traditional bookmakers, prediction market platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes, with prices fluctuating based on market sentiment and demand. Operators often present the products as financial trading markets rather than conventional gambling products. That distinction, however, has not eased concerns among regulators and gambling reform advocates.
“ASIC continues to observe the rise of prediction markets in the United States and is considering how local financial services laws may apply.”
– ASIC spokesperson told SiGMA News
Critics argue that prediction market betting in Australia behaves much like gambling in practice, despite borrowing the language and mechanics of financial exchanges.
Prediction markets in Australia draw ASIC and ACMA scrutiny
Australia’s regulators are already paying closer attention to the rise of offshore prediction markets. The ACMA previously moved against Polymarket, directing internet providers to block access after determining the platform was offering unlicensed gambling services in Australia. ACMA said the service breached long-standing gambling laws by offering prohibited and unlicensed betting to Australians.
An ACMA spokesperson told SiGMA News, “We are aware that some people may attempt to circumvent geo-blocking by using virtual private networks (VPNs). While it is not illegal for Australians to access prohibited or unlicensed online gambling sites, the ACMA conducts regular consumer awareness campaigns to discourage use of these services and to highlight the associated risks.”
Kalshi has geoblocked Australian users and stated that residents in Australia are prohibited from trading on the platform. According to iGamingToday, the company has said it has no trading activity in Australia and no current plans to seek local approval. However, regulators have acknowledged that geoblocking is not foolproof, with VPNs making access to offshore gambling platforms in Australia relatively easy to bypass.
US-based prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi are taking bets tied to Australian politics, including election outcomes and whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will use specific words in parliament. The wagers have already reached tens of thousands of… pic.twitter.com/DpqD9Fu0sY
— 🚨Global Alert (@trendingnews911) May 24, 2026
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has also been monitoring the growth of prediction markets in Australia, viewing the contracts as speculative and high-risk financial-style products. An ASIC spokesperson told SiGMA News, “Bets placed on prediction markets are high-risk and speculative and pose a significant risk to retail investors.” The spokesperson noted that no operator currently holds an Australian market licence for these activities.
Industry groups and gambling reform advocates say prediction market gambling in Australia creates a range of risks beyond financial losses. Some contracts are highly specific and thinly traded, raising concerns about market manipulation, political integrity risks, consumer protection gaps, and regulatory oversight challenges.
Gambling rules face new challenge as prediction markets in Australia grow
The growth of prediction markets in Australia comes as federal wagering reforms are expected to strengthen powers to block illegal gambling websites and restrict financial transactions linked to prohibited operators. Australia announced an investment of AU$112.7 million (about $74.4 million) aimed at reducing harm from online gambling across the country, according to the 2026-27 federal budget document. The new funding package will be distributed across four major initiatives focused on gambling harm prevention, public education, regulatory enforcement, and self-exclusion support systems.
Last month, the federal government introduced broader gambling reform measures. These reforms include a complete ban on televised gambling ads during live sports events. Radio gambling ads will also have restrictions during family-friendly listening hours.
Now, prediction markets in Australia are also coming into the purview of the Australian gambling landscape. Part of the challenge is regulatory classification. These platforms sit in a grey area between financial trading and gambling, using exchange-style structures while offering speculative contracts that often resemble betting products.
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