Trump leads Nobel Peace Prize odds in prediction markets
Bettors on leading prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are giving United States President Donald Trump a significant chance of securing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. The 45th and 47th president currently ranks second in betting odds on both platforms, reflecting strong interest in his candidacy despite the unpredictable nature of the award.
Nobel Peace Prize history
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually to an individual or organisation that demonstrates exceptional efforts in advancing global peace. Since 1901, only four American presidents have received the honour. Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906, Woodrow Wilson in 1919, Jimmy Carter in 2002, and Barack Obama in 2009.
The 2025 prize will be closely watched due to heightened global tensions and the prominence of political figures among the frontrunners. Traders on prediction markets are betting digital assets on who will take home one of the world’s most prestigious honours.
Odds on Polymarket
On blockchain-based platform Polymarket, Yulia Navalnaya, economist and human rights advocate, leads the field. Navalnaya chairs the Human Rights Foundation and heads the Advisory Board of the Anti-Corruption Foundation. She carries an 18 percent chance of winning, according to market activity, with more than one million US dollars wagered.
Trump follows with an 11 percent chance, supported by bettors who highlight his role in diplomatic interventions. Other notable contenders include the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) at nine percent, opposition politician Alexei Gorinov at four percent, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at three percent. António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, is on two percent. Venezuelan leader María Corina Machado holds three percent while environmental activist Greta Thunberg stands at two percent.
Odds on Kalshi
On US regulated exchange Kalshi, Navalnaya once again leads with a 25 percent chance, with 3.1 million US dollars staked on outcomes. Trump sits in second position with a 13 percent chance.
The platform also shows strong support for organisations. Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) is trading at 11 percent, the International Court of Justice at eight percent, and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at seven percent. Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar holds six percent. Pope Leo XIV, United Nations rapporteur Francesca P. Albanese, and Greta Thunberg each stand at five percent.
Role of prediction markets
Prediction markets operate by allowing users to buy and sell digital contracts based on outcomes of future events. The price of each contract reflects the market’s estimated probability of that event happening. Although not a forecast, the markets provide an aggregated view of trader sentiment.
The Nobel Peace Prize is decided by the Norwegian Nobel Committee and does not follow political or market betting trends. However, the presence of high-profile figures such as Trump on these markets highlights the global attention surrounding the award.
Polymarket blocked in Australia
In a separate development, Australia’s communications regulator has moved to restrict access to Polymarket. On 13 August 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) directed internet service providers to block the platform.
The regulator said Polymarket had been operating without a licence, breaching the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. According to ACMA, the company allowed Australians to bet on the outcomes of political and global events using digital currencies such as stablecoins.
During the 2025 federal election campaign in Australia, Polymarket promoted betting markets tied to both Australian and United States politics. The platform also paid social media influencers to attract users, which ACMA ruled as unlawful gambling activity.
