The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that Americans will legally wager $3.3 billion on this year’s NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments. According to the AGA, betting activity tied to March Madness has increased by 54 percent over the past three years.
The organisation said the annual tournament remains one of the most significant drivers of betting activity in the US sports calendar, drawing millions of participants across legal platforms.
Prediction market advertising expands rapidly
Alongside rising wagering volumes, the AGA pointed to a sharp shift in advertising trends within the sector. Data compiled using analytics from Sensor Tower indicates that prediction market platforms have significantly increased their digital advertising presence. While online sportsbook advertising impressions declined by nearly 14 percent in 2025, prediction market advertising grew substantially.
The AGA reported that approximately 15 percent of digital sports betting advertisements seen by consumers last year did not comply with state-level responsible gambling messaging requirements, largely due to their association with prediction market operators.
In the first two months of 2026, that figure has risen further. The AGA said nearly 43 percent of digital sports betting ads viewed by US consumers fell outside standard compliance frameworks, again linked to prediction market platforms.
Sportsbook advertising continues to decline
Despite increased betting activity, the AGA’s commissioned research found that overall sportsbook advertising spend is continuing a multi-year decline. Total spend fell by 5 percent year-on-year in 2025, while overall ad volume dropped by 1 percent and remains 27 percent below its 2021 peak. Television advertising has declined more sharply, down 9 percent over the past year and 50 percent compared with 2021 levels.
The AGA also noted that sports betting advertising represents a relatively small share of the wider US advertising market. In 2025, it accounted for 0.9 percent of total TV advertising spend, compared with 1.5 percent for alcohol advertising. Pharmaceutical advertising remains dominant, with significantly higher volume than both sectors.
The AGA emphasised that compliance with state and tribal regulations is essential to maintaining consumer trust as the market evolves. The organisation warned that the rapid growth of prediction market advertising, particularly where it falls outside established regulatory frameworks, could create inconsistencies in responsible gambling messaging and consumer protections.
Other estimates
Separate estimates from H2 Gambling Capital shows betting on the March Madness 2026 is projected to reach around $4 billion in total wagers. The forecast suggests regulated US sportsbooks will handle roughly 6.7 percent more wagers than the estimated $3.7 billion recorded during the 2025 tournaments. The tournaments begin with early games on 17 March, with the first full round starting 19 March, and will run for approximately three weeks.
According to H2, the increase in betting activity is largely being driven by two factors. First, established regulated betting markets across the US continue to show steady growth in sportsbook wagering. Second, the launch of legal sports betting in Missouri in December has introduced a new pool of bettors just ahead of one of the year’s biggest wagering events.
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