FairPredicts targets Kalshi with ‘Kalshi Lies’ ad campaign
Watchdog group FairPredicts has launched an advertising campaign against prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing the company of misleading users about how trading on its platform operates. The campaign includes billboards in Washington, D.C., transit advertisements, social media promotions, and a website titled “Kalshi Lies”.
The dispute centres on whether users trade directly with each other or with institutional market makers that have significant financial and technological advantages. Critics argue the issue raises concerns about transparency, fairness, and regulation within the growing prediction market industry.
FairPredicts describes itself as a watchdog dedicated to revealing discrepancies between the promises made by prediction platforms and their actual operations. Despite spending a lot of money on advertising, it has yet to reveal its funding sources.
‘Kalshi Lies’ campaign explained
Using parody-style advertisements, FairPredicts’ “Kalshi Lies” campaign publicly critiques prediction markets, claiming that retail users are actually trading against larger institutional corporations with more resources rather than with each other.
According to the campaign, companies that handle liquidity, such as Susquehanna and Jump Trading, distribute the majority of their revenues to a very exclusive group of customers. FairPredicts depicts these marketplaces as biased toward insiders rather than regular customers, citing evidence indicating that just 0.1% of participants get substantial rewards.
You aren't trading against your neighbor. You're trading against trillion-dollar market makers.
— FairPredicts (@FairPredicts) May 20, 2026
Our ad campaign is live across Washington, DC highlighting the TRUTH about Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/mgB1Nr3fbz
Kalshi’s defence
Kalshi has defended itself against criticism by arguing that prediction markets operate differently from casinos or sportsbooks. The company says it does not set odds or profit directly from user losses; instead, it facilitates trading between participants while earning transaction fees.
Market makers play a central role in prediction markets by providing liquidity, ensuring trades can be executed smoothly. Kalshi argues this is standard practice across financial exchanges and says institutional market makers account for a small share of its activity. The company also points out that financial exchanges everywhere rely on market makers, and it sees prediction markets as information markets rather than gambling products.
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated, “Like any financial market, including the stock market, market makers are industry standard because they help bootstrap liquidity. But on most liquid markets, institutional market makers are not a large percent of volume. On Kalshi, it’s about 7 percent or lower.”
Critics are still unconvinced, pointing out that regardless of the legal framework, trading on sports or election outcomes feels like betting to many consumers. Politically, this view is important as legislators address public concerns around gambling. Kalshi is also dealing with legal issues in a number of jurisdictions, which raises concerns about whether state gaming laws or federal financial regulation apply to its contracts. Future treatment of prediction markets may depend on how these arguments turn out.
DraftKings enters the fight
DraftKings co-founder Matt Kalish intensified the argument by disparaging Kalshi on social media. He said that while institutional market makers control the majority of activity, the platform deceives consumers into believing they are trading in a peer-to-peer setting.
His comments were taken seriously because of his background in building a major sportsbook. There may be conflicting interests, though, as several analysts noted that DraftKings itself has shown interest in prediction markets. Kalish raised worries about Kalshi’s own trading section, predicting that it would leverage data advantages against retail users, and questioned whether user data might be shared with liquidity providers.
KALSHI IS “NOT THE HOUSE”
— Matt Kalish (@mattkalish) May 21, 2026
*BUT*
Kalshi have a very friendly 🙂 in house market maker called “Kalshi Trading” integrated with Kalshi that *could* but def WOULD NOT use all their data to decide if they want to cherry pick tasty bets from app normies like me to profit but def DONT
Regulatory crisis around prediction markets
Regulators in the United States are currently putting a lot of pressure on prediction markets. Lawmakers began probing platforms like Kalshi during a recent Senate hearing, questioning if they are genuine trading places or merely gambling sites with a financial makeover. These platforms’ contracts include a wide range of topics, including elections, sports results, and economic data, which has only increased the level of anxiety. Senators on both sides voiced concerns about insider trading, manipulation, and the potential consequences for sports integrity. Their underlying point was pretty straightforward: the average American would look at these contracts and call them bets, not investments. On top of that, the FairPredicts campaign chose this exact moment to air ads questioning whether these markets are even fair, which only added more noise to an already heated debate.
The issues are now more difficult to ignore due to actual cases. According to reports, political candidates have wagered on their own elections, while a soldier was discovered using a different network to trade secret information. Prediction market proponents contend that more stringent regulation, not a complete prohibition, is the answer to these issues, which also exist in conventional financial markets. Better regulation, in their opinion, would solve the vulnerabilities without doing away with what they see as a useful instrument for predicting actual events.
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