Analysts say prediction markets eye $1T future by 2030: Reports
Prediction markets are on track for explosive growth, with total trading volumes projected to reach $1 trillion annually by 2030, according to new analysis from investment firm Bernstein. While sports-linked contracts currently dominate activity, analysts say the sector is expected to evolve rapidly as institutional investors, corporates, and new use cases will reshape demand.
According to several media reports, Bernstein estimates that total market volumes could hit $240 billion in 2026 alone, representing a 370 per cent increase year-on-year. Early data suggests this trajectory is already underway, with leading platforms recording around $60 billion in trading volume in the first few months of the year, surpassing the total for 2025.
Fastest growing segment
The rapid expansion has drawn comparisons to the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) market, with analysts highlighting prediction platforms as among the fastest-growing segments of financial technology.
At present, sports contracts account for a significant portion of activity, over 60 per cent across major platforms. However, analysts say this dominance is expected to decline sharply by the end of the decade, falling to roughly 30 per cent as new categories gain traction. Contracts tied to macroeconomic indicators, business outcomes, and political events are anticipated to drive the next phase of growth.
Analysts say corporations and insurance firms are expected to adopt event contracts to gain more precise exposure to real-world outcomes, replacing or complementing traditional derivatives that often offer only indirect hedging.
Analysts add that institutional participation is already accelerating this transition. They explained that high-frequency trading firms and established financial players are entering the space, bringing advanced strategies such as arbitrage and mispricing detection. Strategic partnerships and major investments, including those from exchange operators and trading platforms, are further legitimising the sector and expanding its distribution.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a friction point
Despite this momentum, analysts say regulatory uncertainty remains a key source of friction. Prediction market platforms are facing ongoing legal disputes between state authorities and federal regulators in the United States, highlighting the unresolved jurisdictional question.
While some states classify prediction markets as a form of gambling, federal bodies argue that they fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) financial regulatory authority. Analysts believe that clearer regulatory frameworks will be critical to sustaining long-term growth.
Expert says overlap will not lead to convergence
In an exclusive interview with SiGMA News in January, Alice Li, Investment Partner at Foresight Ventures, emphasised that prediction markets and sports betting should not be viewed as interchangeable, despite their growing overlap.
Li stressed that the differences between prediction markets and sports betting are structural rather than semantic. While sports betting is typically entertainment-focused, she explained that prediction markets are designed to aggregate information and price uncertainty across a wide range of real-world events.
“There will be overlap, but they remain structurally different products,” she said. Prediction markets extend beyond sports into areas such as economics, public policy, and corporate performance, increasingly functioning as decision-support tools rather than simple wagering platforms.
According to Foresight Ventures’ research, sports still play a critical role in onboarding users, currently accounting for around 70 per cent of activity. However, it said that the market is highly concentrated, with two dominant platforms accounting for nearly all volume.
These platforms represent contrasting approaches. One follows a regulated, compliance-driven model aimed at mainstream integration, while the other leverages a decentralised, crypto-native framework with open participation.
Li expects the sector to evolve along parallel paths rather than converge into a single unified model. “The two will likely evolve in parallel, with some hybrid middle ground,” she said.
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