Prediction markets surpass $5 billion during the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has delivered unprecedented performance for the betting industry while placing prediction markets at the centre of the conversation. As the tournament progresses, the sector’s leading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have recorded remarkable trading volumes, intensifying the debate over the future of traditional sports betting and the growing role of prediction markets within the industry.
Even before the tournament began, analysts at investment bank Macquarie projected that the 2026 FIFA World Cup could become the largest betting event in history when combining sportsbooks and prediction markets. The forecast reflected the rapid growth of these platforms and the expanding role of prediction markets within the global betting ecosystem. The figures reported throughout the tournament suggest that prediction may be proving accurate.
Although the leading sports betting operators have not yet released their consolidated June handle figures, prediction markets have already produced enough data to demonstrate their growth. According to figures published by Kalshi, contracts related to the FIFA World Cup have surpassed $1 billion in trading volume across tournament markets alone.
Globally, Polymarket reported that cumulative trading volume linked to the World Cup has exceeded $4 billion on its international platform. According to the company, the tournament has become the single largest event by trading volume in its history.
Additional reports published by outlets including Fortune, Yahoo Finance, and Cointelegraph indicate that, when considering different contract types and World Cup-related markets, total trading volume across the leading prediction market platforms has already exceeded $5 billion, setting a new record for the sector.
How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks
Although prediction markets offer users an experience similar to sports betting, they operate under a different model. At traditional sportsbooks, users place wagers against the operator, which sets the odds and assumes part of the financial risk associated with each bet.
In prediction markets, however, participants trade contracts directly with one another. Each contract represents the probability of a specific event occurring, and its price fluctuates as buyers and sellers adjust their expectations over time. Kalshi, for example, describes its products as event contracts, arguing that they are regulated financial instruments rather than traditional sports bets.
The growth observed during the FIFA World Cup also reflects a characteristic commonly seen in financial markets, where liquidity tends to increase as new information becomes available. After each round of matches, updated probabilities are incorporated into contract prices while traders and bettors buy, sell or close positions before the tournament champion is determined.
This behaviour distinguishes prediction markets from conventional sports betting, where customers typically hold their wagers until the final result of a match.
In addition to contracts on the tournament winner, the platforms offer contracts covering team qualification, match results, top goalscorer, total goals and numerous other outcomes, significantly increasing overall trading activity.
Prediction markets increase pressure on sportsbooks
The rapid expansion of prediction markets is also increasing competitive pressure on traditional sportsbooks. While operators such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 continue to operate with odds set by the bookmaker, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to determine contract prices through supply and demand.
This structure makes prediction markets resemble financial exchanges and attracts users interested not only in betting, but also in trading positions, hedging risk and taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities. As indicated by several market studies, part of the capital previously directed exclusively toward sports betting is beginning to shift to this new trading model, particularly during major sporting events.
The rapid growth of the sector has also intensified the regulatory debate surrounding these platforms. Kalshi maintains that its event contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US authority responsible for overseeing derivatives markets, and therefore should not be classified as sports betting products subject to state gambling laws.
Several US states, however, dispute that interpretation and argue that contracts based on sports outcomes should be regulated under the same framework that applies to licensed sports betting operators. The issue is already the subject of multiple legal proceedings and has prompted responses from both regulators and stakeholders across the gambling industry.
This article was first published on the Portuguese SiGMA News page on 7 July 2026.
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