World Cup 2026 betting: Polymarket nears $2 billion and challenges bookmakers
The FIFA World Cup 2026 has not yet begun, but part of the market is already moving. On 11 June 2026, the national teams of Mexico and South Africa will officially open the tournament at Mexico City Stadium. Even before the ball starts rolling, however, the World Cup has already become a battleground for betting operators, digital platforms, and new prediction markets.
Much of the interest is driven by Polymarket. On its market for the winner of the 2026 World Cup, the platform has, as of today, approached $2 billion in trading volume. That level shows how far prediction markets have now entered the language of sport. Kalshi, a platform regulated in the United States and active in event contracts, follows with more modest numbers. It has surpassed $100 million in volume, according to data published by the platform itself, but the figure is still enough to confirm that the phenomenon is no longer limited to a niche of digital traders.
The figure cannot be read as a simple financial curiosity. Rather, it points to a deeper shift in how some users approach sporting events. It is no longer only a bet placed before kick-off, at odds set by a bookmaker, but a position that can be bought, sold, adjusted, and tracked over time.
In the case of the 2026 World Cup, the contract can relate to a national team winning the tournament outright and more. Its price changes according to the market-assigned probability. The dynamic borrows heavily from the language of trading: users take a position on a prediction, hold it if the picture remains favourable, or decide to exit before the end of the tournament if sentiment changes.
It takes little to shift the market temperature. A serious injury, a surprise call-up, an underwhelming group-stage performance or an unexpected result can quickly move the value of a contract. That is when the distance from traditional betting becomes most visible.
Spain and France lead expectations
At this stage, Spain and France are among the most closely watched national teams on the main prediction market platforms, with an implied probability of winning of around 16 per cent. Behind them are England, Portugal, and Argentina, teams that continue to attract attention and liquidity due to their recent history, squad quality, and international stature.
These figures, however, should not be interpreted as a definitive forecast. Implied probability is not an official prediction, nor does it work like traditional odds. Rather, it reflects the market mood at this point and, more precisely, how heavily users are buying or selling contracts linked to a team, what expectations are forming, and where liquidity is concentrated.
In essence, the market is not declaring an outright favourite. It indicates how much users are willing to pay today to gain exposure to the possibility of a national team winning the World Cup. It is a provisional snapshot, set to change as the tournament approaches and, even more so, during the competition itself.
Then there are the outsider teams. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Cape Verde, and Panama start with very low probabilities, but that very distance from the favourites makes potential returns higher in the event of a surprise. It is a well-known principle in financial markets: high risk can offer higher returns, but it remains risk nonetheless.
In football, all this adds a different, almost more continuous form of engagement. The fan no longer merely watches the result or a team’s standings position. They follow how the price changes, weigh the news and try to understand whether a team is still undervalued or whether, by contrast, the market has already been carried too far by enthusiasm for a favourite.
Betting becomes a continuous experience
The growth of prediction markets has not happened suddenly. In recent years, millions of users have become familiar with trading apps, cryptocurrencies, digital financial instruments, and platforms that allow real-time trading. In this context, the shift from sport to the trading of probabilities has become more natural than it would have been only a few years ago.
The 2026 World Cup provides the ideal ground for this evolution. It will be the first World Cup with 48 teams and 104 matches, spread across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. A larger tournament means more matches, more stories, more decisive moments, and, inevitably, more possible markets.
For traditional bookmakers, the challenge is not limited to competition on odds. The real point is user attention. New generations, especially those used to mobile interfaces and instant financial tools, do not necessarily want to wait for the final whistle. They want to interact with the event while it is underway.
Prediction markets meet this need precisely. They allow a competition to be followed as a continuous flow of information, not as a closed sequence of bets. Probability becomes a tradable product, and the World Cup, at the same time, becomes a narrative, sporting, and financial platform. For traditional betting, it is a signal that should not be underestimated. The public is not just changing channels. It is changing its habits.
SEON captures the shift in trend
A survey by SEON, a company specialising in fraud prevention and anti-money laundering compliance, helps measure the scale of the phenomenon. Among the 588 US adults surveyed, 43 per cent said they were at least partly likely to bet on 2026 World Cup matches.
Licensed betting apps remain the most-cited channel, accounting for 29 per cent of the sample. Prediction markets follow closely behind, chosen by 19 per cent of respondents. Social casinos, crypto platforms, and offshore sites follow.
This is not yet an overtaking, of course. Prediction markets are no longer speaking only to a niche of users accustomed to crypto and alternative finance. Little by little, they are entering the vocabulary of sports betting, especially in the United States, where sport, data, and technology have long coexisted within the same ecosystem.
The most interesting figure concerns Millennials. In this group, 36 per cent of respondents expect to use prediction markets during the World Cup, compared with 38 per cent who expect to use licensed betting apps. The gap is minimal and suggests a generation that moves more naturally across sportsbooks, financial platforms, digital apps, and hybrid products.
For licensed operators, the signal is difficult to ignore. Major sporting events will remain decisive opportunities to attract new users and bring already registered customers back to the platform, including those who may have become inactive. In 2026, however, the contest will not be played out only among regulated bookmakers. Alongside them will be platforms with a different language, closer to fintech and trading, but now increasingly intertwined with the world of gambling.
Fraud and security, the less visible side of the boom
The other side of this growth concerns security. According to SEON, 45 per cent of respondents are unsure whether betting platforms can adequately protect personal and financial data during extremely high-traffic events such as the World Cup.
It is a significant figure. A World Cup concentrates millions of logins, promotional campaigns, new accounts, payments, bonuses, and customer acquisition attempts into just a few weeks. In such a context, pressure on anti-fraud systems increases significantly.
The risk, however, does not come only from major cyberattacks. Increasingly, it is hidden in much more common situations and, for that reason, is difficult to detect: users opening multiple profiles to exploit promotions, betting links circulating on social media, fake apps, clone sites, and scam campaigns built around anticipation for the World Cup.
As always, the numbers help convey the scale of the problem. Some 22 per cent of respondents admitted they had created multiple accounts to obtain bonuses or promotional offers, while 20 per cent said they had clicked on betting links received through social media or messaging apps. Taken individually, these may seem like isolated behaviours. When multiplied on a large scale, however, they become a concrete issue for operators, both in terms of risk management and regulation.
World Cup-related scams are already visible. Almost a quarter of the sample said they had seen fraudulent social media content linked to World Cup betting, while 18 per cent reported fake betting apps or websites. This will be another challenge for control authorities.
For operators, meanwhile, the challenge will be to quickly distinguish between a real customer, promotional abuse, and organised fraud. That distinction is far from simple, especially when traffic volume rises suddenly.
The 2026 World Cup could mark “year zero” for sports prediction markets. The volumes already recorded on Polymarket and the growth of Kalshi show that concrete demand exists: part of the public wants products built not only around betting but also around the trading of probabilities. At the same time, fraud, data security, and regulatory uncertainty are reminders that this expansion needs clearer rules.
This article was originally published on the Italian SiGMA News page on 9 June 2026.
Stay ahead with the stories driving global iGaming. Select SiGMA World as your source preference for exclusive voices, betting trends, prediction markets and key regulatory updates.
