World Cup turns prediction markets into a multibillion-dollar phenomenon
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is driving more than stadium attendance, television broadcasts and sports betting activity. The tournament has also boosted a segment that remains relatively unfamiliar to the general public but has been expanding rapidly within financial markets: prediction markets. During the opening days of the tournament, platforms recorded a combined trading volume of approximately $5.4 billion in World Cup-related contracts, setting a new record for the sector.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts linked to the outcome of future events. Rather than placing traditional bets on a result, participants buy and sell positions that reflect the probability of a specific outcome occurring. If the prediction proves correct, the contract is settled for a profit. Otherwise, it loses value.
The concept has existed for decades in academic and financial environments but has gained global visibility in recent years thanks to the growth of companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Interest increased even further during the 2024 US presidential election, when these platforms attracted millions of users by offering contracts on political outcomes.
The World Cup now appears to represent another milestone for the industry.
World Cup surpasses March Madness and the Champions League
According to a report published by Fortune, Kalshi recorded the strongest growth during the tournament. The company said trading volume related to the World Cup had already reached $2.9 billion, including combined contracts and parallel trading activity. The figure exceeds the $2.51 billion generated by the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament on the platform and also surpasses the current UEFA Champions League season, which recorded approximately $685 million in traded contracts.
Polymarket posted similar results. Estimates indicate that the World Cup market alone accumulated approximately $2.5 billion in trading volume, while football-related contracts have now exceeded the $5 billion mark.
Other companies have also entered the space. Robinhood, known for its investment platform, reported that its partner platform operator executed more than 500 million contracts throughout June, with 400 million processed after the start of the World Cup on 11 June. Some experts argue that the format attracts a different type of user than traditional sportsbooks. Many participants view these contracts as financial instruments capable of reflecting the “wisdom of crowds”, the concept that large groups of people can collectively produce more accurate forecasts than individual analyses.
Surprise results deliver million-dollar profits
As in traditional sports betting, unexpected results have generated significant profits for some participants. Several unexpected draws, such as Spain against Cape Verde and Portugal against Congo, produced substantial returns for users who took positions against the tournament favourites.
In one of the most widely discussed cases, a user whose account had been created only a few days earlier placed approximately $4 million in contracts predicting that Spain would fail to win its match. After the final whistle, the user withdrew approximately $9 million. In another case, an investor placed around $300,000 on Portugal failing to win its match. Following the draw, the position generated a profit of nearly $1 million.
There have also been reports of even larger trades. According to international media outlets, one investor turned a $6 million position into returns exceeding $13 million by capitalising on unexpected World Cup results. However, these extraordinary profits have also raised concerns among regulators and financial supervisory authorities.
Regulators monitor growth with caution
The rapid expansion of prediction markets is fuelling regulatory debate in several countries over the legal nature of these activities. In the United States, discussions are centred on contracts traded through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The key question is whether these contracts should be treated as legitimate financial instruments or as a form of unlicensed online gambling.
The debate involves state authorities, federal regulators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees derivatives markets in the United States. While some court decisions have supported the sector’s expansion, several US states continue to challenge the legality of sports-related contracts offered by certain platforms.
Polymarket is also facing scrutiny over its advertising practices and the transparency of its promotional campaigns. Several US lawmakers have recently called for investigations into alleged deceptive marketing practices used to attract new users. Other jurisdictions have taken an even stricter approach. New Zealand has banned prediction market platforms under its gambling legislation, while Argentina blocked access to Polymarket nationwide in March this year.
In Brazil, the legal framework remains unresolved. Authorities have not yet determined whether these activities should fall under the supervision of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) or the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance. The absence of a specific legal framework has led to measures restricting access by Brazilian users to some international platforms.
Despite the regulatory uncertainty, the sector’s growth shows little sign of slowing. Polymarket recently surpassed $1 billion in annualised revenue, while Kalshi is negotiating a new investment round that could increase its valuation to as much as $40 billion.
This article was first published on the Portuguese SiGMA News page on 29 June 2026.
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