Prediction markets surpass 2 million visits as betting sector backs Brazil crackdown
The blocking of prediction markets in Brazil has become one of the most discussed topics in the betting sector in recent weeks. The federal government’s decision to take dozens of platforms offline has not only surprised users but also raised concerns about the limits between investment, betting, and digital innovation. Recent data show these platforms have accumulated millions of visits in the country, helping to illustrate the scale of the disruption.
Prediction markets: what they are and why they have grown
Before understanding the block, it is important to explain what these markets are. In practice, they function as platforms where users “bet” on predictions of future events, such as elections, sports results, awards, or even global events. The difference is that many of these companies present themselves as financial tools, using contract or derivative logic.
In theory, the idea is simple: if you believe something will happen, you buy a “position”; if you are correct, you make money. This model gained global popularity on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which are among the most widely used, especially among younger, more digital audiences.
In Brazil, this growth was rapid. Even without regulation, these platforms began attracting millions of monthly users. According to data recently published by Aposta Legal, traffic exceeded 2 million visits in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Why the government intervened
The government understands that these markets were operating irregularly. Essentially, they offered something very similar to betting, but without following the rules imposed on authorised operators. Among the main issues highlighted are:
- Failure to pay licensing fees to operate in the country
- Inadequate taxation
- Absence of consumer protection mechanisms
- Offering products deemed illegal under Brazilian law
According to the Ministry of Finance, these platforms operated in a “grey area” by positioning themselves as financial products to avoid betting regulations.
In addition, a resolution by the National Monetary Council explicitly prohibited the offering of contracts tied to non-economic events, such as politics, sports, or entertainment, which effectively made this business model unviable in the country.
In total, around 27 platforms were blocked, including Polymarket, the most-used prediction market platform by Brazilian users. The operation was supported by Anatel, which notified thousands of internet providers to ensure the sites were taken offline quickly.
Brazil is not alone in restricting prediction markets. Latin America is experiencing rapid expansion of this model, driven by increased digitalisation and user interest in topics such as politics, sports, and economics. Countries such as Mexico and Colombia are adopting a more restrictive stance, especially as these platforms operate in a grey area between betting and financial products.
Support from the regulated sector for new rules
Licensed operators and industry entities believe the new measures not only help organise the market, but also protect users and combat companies operating outside Brazilian law.
The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) has expressed support for the government’s decisions. However, it is not the only one. For betting operators already operating within the rules, the measure represents a form of “market clean-up”. This is because these companies went through a rigorous regulatory process, while other platforms exploited legal loopholes to offer very similar products without meeting the same requirements.
Prediction markets gained traction precisely because they presented themselves as something different from traditional betting. Instead of placing a bet directly, users “invest” in a contract linked to a future event. In theory, it appears to be a financial product. In practice, its mechanics are extremely similar to betting. This “grey area” is exactly what drew the authorities’ attention.
In recent months, these platforms began offering predictions on almost everything: from sports results to reality show eliminations, popular votes, and even geopolitical events. This rapid growth without regulatory control raised concerns not only about financial risks to users but also about the potential for manipulation.
Tackling illegal practices and systemic risks
According to industry representatives, one of the main issues with these markets is the lack of control. Unlike regulated betting operators, which are subject to strict monitoring rules, prediction markets operate without adequate oversight.
According to Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of ANJL, Brazil’s regulatory framework was designed to ensure full transparency: knowing who is betting, how much is being wagered, and how much is being paid out. This helps prevent issues such as fraud, collusion between bettors, and even more complex schemes. Among the main risks highlighted are:
- Possibility of collusion between users to manipulate outcomes
- Use of these platforms for money laundering
- Lack of consumer protection
- Absence of control over financial transactions
This last point is particularly sensitive. Without proper supervision, these operations can serve as parallel channels for financial flows, raising concerns for both authorities and the regulated sector.
Prediction is not investment
Another important aspect of the new measures is the attempt to counter a perception gaining traction: that betting on events could be seen as an investment. For the sector, this interpretation is dangerous. Unlike traditional financial products, prediction markets are based on uncertain, often subjective events, thereby increasing risk and reducing predictability.
However, despite the block, this does not mean prediction markets are completely excluded from the market. It is possible that this type of operation may be permitted in the future, but only within a regulated model. Industry discussions suggest that, if authorised, these markets would operate under a specific licence, similar to the framework established for sports betting today.
This article was first published in Portuguese on 30 April 2026.
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