Macquarie has lowered its Macau GGR forecast for the third quarter of 2026 and reduced its full-year outlook after weaker-than-expected June casino revenue highlighted the impact of the FIFA World Cup on Macau gaming demand.
In a research note published on Tuesday (7 July), as reported by Inside Asian Gaming (IAG), analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir revised their third-quarter Macau GGR forecast from growth of 6 per cent year-on-year to 2 per cent year-on-year. The investment bank also cut its forecast for full-year 2026 Macau gross gaming revenue growth from 7.7 per cent to 5.4 per cent.
The downgrade follows Macau’s first monthly gaming revenue decline in almost 18 months and comes amid growing concerns that the expanded FIFA World Cup is weighing more heavily on casino spending than initially anticipated.
FIFA World Cup continues to pressure Macau gaming demand
According to Macquarie, the FIFA World Cup remains a key headwind for Macau casino revenue, with the tournament running through to 19 July. Major football tournaments have historically diverted discretionary spending away from Macau’s gaming sector as premium customers shift part of their entertainment budgets towards sports betting and related activities.
The impact appears more pronounced in 2026 due to the tournament’s expanded format, which features 104 matches compared with 64 matches during the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
“Looking ahead, we continue to see Macau demand as dependent on consumer sentiment, liquidity among premium players and regional macro conditions,” the analysts said, as quoted by IAG. “While we believe the structural recovery story remains intact, the June result underscores the importance of the premium segment, which operators continue to highlight as the main driver of Macau growth.”
Macau GGR growth loses momentum after strong start to 2026
Macau began 2026 strongly, with gross gaming revenue rising 14.3 per cent during the first quarter. However, momentum has slowed considerably in recent months. Data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) showed Macau GGR fell 12.1 per cent year-on-year in June to MOP18.52 billion (US$2.30 billion). Revenue was also down 18.1 per cent compared with May’s MOP22.61 billion (US$2.80 billion).
— SiGMA World (@SiGMAworld_) July 1, 2026
The June result marked Macau’s first year-on-year decline in monthly gaming revenue since January 2025 and reduced first-half growth to 6.8 per cent. Despite the slowdown, Macau generated MOP126.90 billion (US$15.74 billion) in gross gaming revenue during the first six months of 2026, remaining ahead of the same period last year.
Premium mass segment shows signs of weakness
Citigroup previously reported that premium mass wagers declined 38 per cent year-on-year in June, with both player volumes and average bet sizes falling. The findings reinforced concerns that higher-value customers reduced gaming activity during the tournament.
Morgan Stanley has also warned that Macau GGR growth could remain under pressure through July before improving once the World Cup concludes. The premium mass segment has become increasingly important to Macau casino operators since the market’s post-pandemic recovery, generating stronger margins than traditional VIP gaming while attracting affluent regional customers.
Analysts remain cautious on Macau casino revenue outlook
Macquarie’s revised forecast aligns with broader industry expectations that Macau gaming revenue growth will moderate during the second half of 2026. Recently, S&P Global Ratings warned that casino operators across the Asia-Pacific region face a more challenging operating environment amid softer consumer demand, higher operating costs and global economic uncertainty.
The ratings agency said Macau GGR growth is expected to slow as year-on-year comparisons become tougher and consumer spending softens, although the market is still forecast to expand between 5 per cent and 7 per cent this year.
Higher fuel prices, economic uncertainty and increased competition for premium players are also expected to weigh on profitability across the Macau casino industry.
Despite lowering its Macau GGR forecast, Macquarie said it continues to view the market’s long-term recovery positively. Analysts noted that Macau’s performance remains closely linked to consumer confidence, premium player liquidity and broader regional economic conditions, but maintained that the underlying recovery trend remains intact.
Asian iGaming returns to the City of Dreams. From 30 November to 2 December 2026, SiGMA South Asia unites 3,500+ industry leaders, innovators and decision-makers in Colombo to shape the future of gaming.
