MGM China emerged as the biggest market share gainer in Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) market in March 2026, according to an investment memo by UBS. The operator recorded a sharp rebound in its share of industry gaming revenue, supported by short-term fluctuations in gaming win rates.
Strong monthly recovery for MGM China
According to Asia Gaming Brief, UBS analysts, including Angus Chan, Perry Yeung, Ryan Lau, and Samuel Yip, reported that MGM China’s share of Macau’s GGR rose to 18 per cent in March. This marked a notable increase from 14 per cent in February, reflecting a 4-percentage-point rise month-on-month.
The bank described MGM China as the “biggest market share gainer” for the month. It attributed the increase mainly to hold volatility, which refers to changes in the percentage of wagers that operators retain as revenue.
Despite the strong monthly performance, MGM China’s overall quarterly share still showed a slight decline. UBS estimated that its market share fell by around 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026. However, the March rebound helped reduce the scale of that decline.
Rivals lose ground during the same period
The gains recorded by MGM China coincided with declines among some of its key competitors in Macau.
Galaxy Entertainment saw its share of Macau’s GGR drop to 19 per cent in March, compared with 23 per cent in February. This represented a 4-percentage-point decrease over the month.
Sands China also reported a decline. Its market share fell to 24.5 per cent in March from 26.5 per cent in February, a 2-percentage-point drop.
These shifts indicate that market share movements in Macau can change quickly over short periods, especially when influenced by factors such as gaming hold rates and player activity.
Moderate gains for other operators
Other gaming operators in Macau posted more modest improvements during March.
Melco Resorts increased its market share to 15.5 per cent, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. SJM Holdings also recorded a gain, with its share rising to 10.5 per cent. This increase partly offset earlier declines linked to the closure of satellite casinos.
While these gains were smaller compared with MGM China’s jump, they suggest a broader rebalancing across the market during the month.
Short-term factors drive volatility
UBS noted that some of the monthly changes were driven by short-term factors rather than structural shifts. In particular, the normalisation of VIP hold rates played a role in shaping March’s results.
Hold volatility can significantly affect reported gaming revenue over short periods, especially in the VIP segment where wager sizes are larger. As a result, monthly market share figures may not always reflect long-term performance trends.
Outlook remains tied to market dynamics
The March data demonstrate MGM China’s capacity to capture a larger share of Macau’s gaming earnings during volatile periods. But according to UBS, these changes should be considered in light of the overall market conditions.
Macau’s gaming sector continues to experience fluctuations driven by player behaviour, regulatory changes, and operational adjustments by casino operators. As a result, market share positions can shift quickly from one month to another.
The latest figures underline the importance of monitoring both short-term performance indicators and longer-term trends when assessing the competitive landscape in Macau’s gaming industry.
Be part of the action! Join the world’s biggest iGaming community with SiGMA’s Top 10 News countdown. Subscribe HERE for weekly updates, insider insights, and exclusive subscriber-only offers.
