Prediction market ads coming to Google in the US
Google will permit advertising for prediction markets in the United States starting 21 January, under a new policy that restricts eligibility to federally regulated operators.
According to Google Ads’ message to advertisers, only platforms authorised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as Designated Contract Markets or registered brokerages under the National Futures Association (NFA) can run ads. The company said this includes established operators such as Kalshi, DraftKings, Fanatics, and Robinhood, provided that prediction markets are central to their business.
Nevada excluded amid legal disputes
However, Google Ads made it clear that the policy excludes Nevada, where federal courts have upheld state enforcement actions against some prediction markets. Operators such as Crypto.com have ceased activity in the state, while Kalshi is seeking a stay from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. Other states, including Maryland, remain eligible despite separate legal challenges.
Certification required for advertising
The company also said that eligible advertisers must complete its certification process before launching campaigns. This process ensures full compliance with financial regulations, local laws, and Google Ads policies.
Google said that ads may target only approved jurisdictions, with separate applications required for each location. Unregulated platforms that offer tokenised predictions or provide informational or advisory services are excluded from advertising.
Integration with Google Finance
Recently, Google announced that its Finance platform will integrate prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket. The company said that users will be able to query event outcomes, such as GDP growth or election probabilities, through AI-powered tools.
Google continues to exclude binary options, fixed-return contracts, and online gambling under local law. Educational or informational sites offering analysis, trading signals, or guidance are also barred.
High-profile M&A and partnerships fuel expansion in 2025
In a SiGMA News exclusive report, the prediction markets sector experienced consolidation and strategic growth in 2025. According to reports, mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships among fintech firms, crypto platforms, and sportsbooks strengthened the market’s federal compliance and mainstream positioning. Notable deals included Kalshi partnering with Webull in February to offer CFTC-regulated contracts through a retail brokerage interface, and Polymarket acquiring QCEX, a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in July.
FanDuel and CME Group partnered in August to develop a regulated event contracts platform, while Robinhood launched football prediction markets within its stock-trading app. Meanwhile, October saw further consolidation with Intercontinental Exchange investing in Polymarket and DraftKings acquiring Railbird Technologies, establishing the regulatory foundation for federally compliant event contracts.
By November 2025, operators moved from planning to execution. PrizePicks integrated Polymarket infrastructure, FanDuel Predicts launched with CME Group, and Polymarket secured CFTC approval while partnering with UFC parent TKO Group Holdings. Regulatory friction persisted, with Nevada enforcing its stance against sportsbook-linked prediction products.
Prediction market data also expanded into media and advocacy. Kalshi partnered with CNN to integrate data into coverage, Moon Intelligence partnered with 55 Tech for AI-driven market-making, and Gemini received CFTC approval.
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