Kalshi has withdrawn from the Indian market after updating its member agreement to classify India as a restricted jurisdiction, preventing users in the country from trading event contracts on the platform.
The move follows a wider crackdown on offshore prediction market operators by Indian authorities and marks a notable reversal of Kalshi’s international expansion strategy. It also arrives at a time when regulators across Europe are stepping up scrutiny of prediction markets and their treatment under gambling laws.
Kalshi India ban reverses expansion plans
The Kalshi India ban represents a sharp change in direction for the company. In October 2025, Kalshi announced plans to expand into more than 140 countries, including India. Less than a year later, the platform has added India to its list of restricted jurisdictions, bringing the total number of prohibited countries and territories to 55.
Kalshi has built its reputation around regulatory compliance in the United States and operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, that status does not override national gambling and gaming regulations in overseas markets.
The revised member agreement also gives Kalshi flexibility to update its restricted jurisdictions list whenever legal, regulatory or commercial conditions change.
Prediction markets allow users to speculate on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections and sporting fixtures to economic and geopolitical developments. While operators often describe these products as financial contracts, regulators in several jurisdictions increasingly view them as forms of betting that require local licences and consumer safeguards.
India’s online gaming law changed the landscape
Kalshi’s withdrawal follows the introduction of the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 (PROGA), which came into force on 1 May. The legislation forms the centrepiece of India’s nationwide approach to online gaming regulation and prohibits online money games involving real-money stakes. Indian authorities have repeatedly stated that products involving monetary wagers fall within prohibited categories and cannot legally operate in the country.
The new framework has already disrupted India’s real-money gaming sector. Operators including Dream11, WinZO, Zupee, PokerBaazi and Games24x7 have either suspended services or scaled back parts of their businesses in response to the changing regulatory environment.
Legal analysts have broadly concluded that prediction markets fall within the scope of the legislation. As a result, operators and businesses facilitating such activity could face regulatory and criminal consequences.
The law contains provisions that may expose individuals and companies to penalties, including imprisonment, for facilitating, promoting or financing prohibited online gambling activities.
India steps up action against prediction markets
Regulatory pressure increased significantly during April and May. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) issued an advisory warning internet intermediaries and Virtual Private Network (VPN) providers against helping users access blocked betting and prediction market websites. The advisory specifically referred to Polymarket and similar services.
Reports in Indian media later indicated that authorities had already moved against Polymarket and were preparing similar action against Kalshi. Despite those warnings, users in India were reportedly still able to access and register accounts on both platforms during May.
Kalshi’s legal representatives previously said the company had engaged with Indian authorities and had not been instructed to cease operations. They also stated that the platform would comply with any official government requests should they be issued.
Prediction markets face scrutiny during the FIFA World Cup
The Kalshi India ban comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny beyond Asia. On 17 June, regulators from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland signed a joint declaration pledging closer cooperation against prediction market operators that fail to comply with local laws. The announcement coincided with the FIFA World Cup, a period expected to generate significant betting and speculative trading activity.
European regulators said prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, particularly among younger adults. They warned that some platforms may not provide safeguards commonly required in regulated gambling markets, such as spending limits, time restrictions and robust age-verification measures.
The authorities also highlighted concerns around gambling-related harm, insider information, market integrity and financial volatility. France’s Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), which played a leading role in the initiative, warned that some prediction market products could contribute to what it described as a “significant addictive cycle”.
European regulators target prediction market operators
The coordinated action marks one of the strongest regulatory responses yet to the rapidly growing prediction market industry. Regulators have urged sports federations, leagues and clubs to check whether prediction market operators are authorised in their jurisdictions before entering into sponsorship or commercial agreements.
The declaration also outlined a range of enforcement tools available to national authorities, including warnings, fines, advertising restrictions and internet service provider-level blocking.
Several countries, including Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have already taken steps to limit access to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Spain’s gambling regulator previously blocked local access to both operators, arguing they were offering unlicensed games of chance without the necessary authorisation.
Prediction market growth faces regulatory challenges
The increased scrutiny comes despite strong growth forecasts for the sector. According to investment firm Bernstein, annual prediction market trading volumes could reach $1 trillion by 2030 as participation expands and new use cases emerge beyond politics and sport. That growth has intensified the debate around how these products should be regulated.
Many regulators argue that contracts tied to future event outcomes closely resemble traditional betting products and should therefore fall under existing gambling laws.
The World Lottery Association has taken a similar position. The organisation has called on governments to regulate prediction markets under the same framework applied to sports betting operators.
In a recent position paper, the association argued that products offering financial returns based on sporting outcomes should be treated as bets regardless of the terminology used by operators.
India’s gaming industry feels the impact
India’s regulatory changes have affected more than prediction market operators. Several gaming companies have altered their business models since the introduction of the country’s updated online gaming rules. Among them is Flutter Entertainment, which suspended paid contests through its Junglee skill gaming business despite expectations that the operation would generate around $200 million in revenue during 2026.
Research published by policy group CUTS International has suggested that offshore betting activity increased following India’s restrictions on real-money gaming, raising questions about the long-term effectiveness of prohibition-based measures.
Nevertheless, regulators remain focused on consumer protection, investor safeguards and the legal status of products that allow users to speculate on future events using real money.
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