Revenue rises, margins remain under pressure in Macau: Analysts
Asia’s integrated resort boom offered contrasting views on Macau’s outlook: analysts warned that profitability is under pressure, while others argued the market still has room to grow.
Speaking during G2E Asia at The Venetian Macao, Vitaly Umansky, Senior Research Analyst – Global Gaming at Seaport Research Partners, said Macau’s recovery has changed structurally since the pandemic. He added that Macau gaming stocks had historically been driven by “high returns, high growth, high profitability,” but said investor attention had shifted toward technology and artificial intelligence sectors.
“In a world where tech and AI are dominating investment opportunities, gambling, which is a fairly small sector, has seen a pullback effect from the investment community,” he said.
Despite that, Umansky expects Macau revenues to continue growing faster than the wider Chinese economy.
Macau is seen as mature market
Umansky argued that Macau may already be approaching maturity as more Asian jurisdictions develop their own gaming industries.
“We’re continuing to see a bigger proliferation of gambling assets around Asia,” he said, pointing to Singapore, Vietnam and the future integrated resort market in Japan. “There are players that I believe have gone down to Singapore rather than coming to Macau,” he added.
Japan’s first integrated resort, currently under development in Osaka, could further reshape regional competition. “It’ll be a very large property,” Umansky said. “There may be more integrated resort properties in Japan.”
He questioned whether the pool of premium customers willing to travel and spend heavily in casinos could continue expanding indefinitely.“An argument can be made that we are in a mature market from that customer demographic,” he said.
Citi Research remains bullish on Macau
George Choi, Director and Global Head of Gaming Research at Citi Research, took a more optimistic stance. He argued that Macau’s penetration into mainland China remains low.
“The penetration is still less than 2 per cent into China,” Choi said. “The wealth is still there.”
Choi said high-end players could still easily be found across casino floors in Macau. He also pointed to operators introducing more side-bet products to drive additional gaming revenue.
“Casino operators are trying very hard to be more creative on these side bets,” Choi said. According to Choi, stronger product innovation could ease some of the competitive pressure operators currently face.
Growth forecasts remain positive
Choi said Citi Research is forecasting around 6 per cent gross gaming revenue growth and roughly 8 per cent EBITDA growth for Macau’s gaming industry. When asked about the basis for his forecasts, Choi said traditional economic indicators were less useful than direct observation.
Instead, Choi said he relies heavily on regular visits to Macau and conversations with people on the ground.
Gaming taxes reflect steady recovery
Macau’s improving gaming revenues are also boosting government finances, despite concerns around profitability.
Latest data from Macau’s Financial Services Bureau showed that MOP34.87 billion ($4.33 billion) in gaming tax revenue was collected between January and April 2026, up 16.8 percent year-on-year. Gaming taxes accounted for around 84 percent of the Macau SAR government’s total revenue during the four-month period, underlining the sector’s continued importance to the local economy.
In April alone, gaming tax revenue reached MOP9.07 billion ($1.13 billion), up 18.7 percent from the same month last year and 2.3 percent above March collections.
Under Macau’s tax system, gaming tax figures reflect casino gross gaming revenue generated during the previous month. April’s tax intake corresponded to March casino revenue, which reached MOP 22.56 billion ($2.80 billion).
The Macau government has set a full-year gaming tax revenue target of MOP92.7 billion ($11.56 billion) for 2026. Based on current collections, authorities have already achieved around 37.6 percent of the annual target within the first four months of the year.
Macau continues to apply an effective 40 percent tax rate on gross gaming revenue under the city’s revised concession framework, which places greater emphasis on tourism diversification and non-gaming investment commitments from operators.
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