Brazil has formally banned prediction markets, a move announced last Friday in a press conference led by Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Presidential Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior.
The National Monetary Council (CMN) issued a resolution clarifying that derivatives contracts cannot be tied to outcomes of sports events, online gaming, or real and virtual political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment events. Such products, the CMN stressed, fall outside the scope of authorised financial instruments.
Enforcement actions underway
Telecommunications regulator Anatel has already blocked 28 platforms offering event-based contracts and pledged to continue targeting others. “Platforms are being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” Durigan warned.
Authorities framed the ban as a measure to protect against financial harm and deceptive practices. They view prediction markets without clear rules on payments, transparency, or dispute resolution, unlike regulated fixed-odds betting.
In addition, Belchior highlighted that the government’s position is based on consumer protection: “Prediction markets are not permitted in Brazil. We do not want residents exposed to financial losses.” Regulators warn that these platforms expose users to fraud and scams, addiction concerns, data misuse, and the lack of recourse.
Industry support
The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANL) welcomed the measures. Plinio Lemos Jorge, president of ANJL, noted that Law 14.790/2023 was designed to ensure strict oversight of betting activities.
“This very strict regulation also came to prevent money laundering. The predictive market refers to isolated events. That is the danger: collusion between bettors, money laundering, and the lack of control over these games,” he said in a statement.
Legal context
Durigan explained that betting on random events like weather conditions does not comply with Brazil’s gambling laws, which only cover fixed-odds sports betting and online gaming. Since the regulated online gambling market opened in January 2025, authorities have blocked 39,000 unlicenced betting sites. Prediction market operators, he said, will face the same enforcement approach.
“The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation,” Durigan stated. “This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”
Regulatory clarifications
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, noted that betting on non-sports events and online games is prohibited. “We began to see the growth of prediction markets, which look a lot like betting, but not as defined by law,” he said. The CMN responded by explicitly excluding predictions from the derivatives market.
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, added that fixed-odds betting remains legal and regulated as a public service. Prediction markets, however, were deemed disguised bets and not covered by Law 14.790, Brazil’s landmark gambling regulation that legalised and structured fixed-odds sports betting and online gaming. Additionally, licenced operators must comply with strict rules on payments, advertising, and consumer safeguards.
For Ricardo Morishita, National Consumer Secretary, he reiterated the ban and advised players to use only regulated platforms identified under the bet.br domain. “Illegal betting is a huge risk for consumers,” he cautioned.
International comparison
Prediction markets are treated differently around the world. The U.S., for one, perceive them as financial instruments under federal law. However, they also face state-level pushback, creating legal uncertainty, according to several media outlets.
Meanwhile, in the UK and the EU, gambling classification dominates, though Gibraltar’s licencing experiment may signal future flexibility. In Asia, bans and strict restrictions on gambling and crypto are prevalent. Brazil’s outright prohibition aligns more closely with European and Asian approaches than with the U.S. federal stance.
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