South Korea casino revenues slip despite high tourist influx
South Korea’s foreign-only casino sector has reported a sharp drop in revenue, even as visitor numbers continue to climb, highlighting the unpredictability of gaming-led income.
Two of the country’s largest operators, Paradise and Grand Korea Leisure (GKL), both recorded notable year-on-year declines in March. Paradise brought in 49.5 billion won (about $36 million) in casino revenue, a drop of 39.6 per cent from a year earlier. GKL reported 32.0 billion won ($23 million), down 22.8 per cent.
But what makes the dip stand out is the timing. Both groups had started 2026 on a solid footing, with steady gains through January and February, so the March slowdown came rather suddenly.
South Korea recorded a first-quarter record of 4.76 million foreign tourist arrivals, up 23 per cent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism announced on 16 April 2026. The figure represents the highest first-quarter total on record, achieved despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that emerged in March.
No decline in demand
There is little sign that demand has weakened. If anything, visitor traffic held up well. Paradise even saw a small uptick in VIP guests, reaching 12,868, while GKL’s total footfall jumped by over 4,000 to 17,978. Casino floors remained busy, with players actively buying chips and spending more time at the tables.
This is reflected in the so-called “drop” figures, which measure the total amount wagered. Paradise’s drop rose to 587.7 billion won (about $430 million), while GKL’s reached 339.3 billion won (roughly $248 million). An increase in operating days during March also contributed to the higher volumes.
Despite this, revenues fell sharply. The key factor lies in the “hold rate”, the proportion of wagers that casinos retain as profit. For Paradise, this figure dropped from around 13–15 per cent earlier in the year to just 7.5 per cent in March. GKL saw a similar trend, with its hold rate slipping to 9.4 per cent.
In simple terms, players won more than expected during the month. While this may benefit customers, it reduces operators’ retained share, directly affecting earnings. Analysts say this disconnect between strong volumes and weaker revenues is unusual, but not unusual. Casino performance is naturally tied to probability.
This means even short-term swings can be major. Experts point to the “law of large numbers”, suggesting that results tend to even out over time as more games are played.
Operating profits likely to be hit
Even so, the weaker hold rates are expected to weigh on first-quarter earnings. Market forecasts indicate Paradise’s operating profit could fall by roughly one-third (around 33 per cent), while GKL may see a decline of about 17 per cent.
Operators are now looking beyond short-term fluctuations and focusing on tourism trends. South Korea’s broader travel recovery has been robust. The country welcomed approximately 16.4 million visitors in 2024, rising sharply to nearly 18.9 million in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
Growth has been driven largely by regional markets, particularly China and Japan, as well as by increasing arrivals from Europe and the Americas. The first quarter alone saw 4.76 million visitors, up 23 per cent year-on-year.
Industry players are hopeful that the upcoming holiday periods, including Japan’s Golden Week and China’s Labour Day break, can still flip the tables and bring in new high-value visitors. Marketing campaigns and tailored events aimed at VIP customers are already being rolled out.
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