Nigeria’s gambling market is no longer whispering about growth; instead, it’s roaring with figures that require attention. Daily users exceed 60 million in the country, and the market size is estimated to be between $3.6 and $3.9 billion.
Few African sectors move fast, and fewer still evolve with such uneven oversight. For Aso Obinna, CEO of Select Punters, the story is both triumph and tension, he tells SiGMA News. He sees innovation outpacing institutions at every turn.
A market racing ahead of its rulebook
Operators sprint forward while regulators struggle to catch their breath. The result is a booming market layered with uncertainty. He describes the situation without decoration. “It’s a fact that the Nigerian market has evolved into a $3.8 billion powerhouse, but we have to be honest, this didn’t happen because of the regulators; it happened through sheer organic momentum. While I won’t overlook the efforts of the NLRC and state boards like the LSLGA in providing a basic framework, the reality is that the industry has moved at lightning speed while the laws governing it are still playing catch-up.”
His assessment feels blunt, yet measured. Growth, he suggests, happened despite the system, not because of it. Frameworks exist, but they lag behind reality. Operators often improvise around policy gaps. The bigger challenge lies elsewhere. It lies in fragmentation.
“Right now, the biggest gap isn’t a lack of rules; it’s the confusion of allegiance. We have operators caught in a loop where they secure a license in one state, only to find they have to jump through the same hoops in another just to maintain a frictionless operation. It’s redundant and slowing us down. I believe state regulation can work, and it should work, but we need much better implementation. A system that actually accounts for the scale and pace of the modern Nigerian market rather than holding it back with fragmented bureaucracy.”
That duplication creates cost and delay. It discourages smaller entrants. It frustrates established brands. Momentum slows where paperwork multiplies.
The Central Gaming Bill dilemma
Policy reform now sits at the centre of debate in Nigeria. The Central Gaming Bill 2025 promises streamlined oversight. Supporters call it overdue, and critics call it unconstitutional.
Obinna sees both sides clearly. He frames it as a risk-reward calculation. “The Central Gaming Bill is a classic double-edged sword. On one hand, centralisation offers the kind of efficiency that is an investor’s dream; having a single point of contact for compliance, KYC, and AML would be a game-changer. But we can’t ignore the massive constitutional risk.”
A single authority could simplify everything. Compliance would become faster. Licensing would become clearer. International investors prefer one door, not thirty-six. Yet legal friction could undo those gains.
Nigeria’s Federal-State friction
“Following the 2024 Supreme Court ruling, any federal overreach creates a sense of Legal Instability. For an operator, the biggest fear is ‘Double Jeopardy’, being perfectly compliant with federal law while simultaneously being dragged through court by state regulators. This power struggle creates a lot of noise and confusion that directly hurts business.”
Legal battles scare capital faster than taxes ever could. Investors value predictability above all. When courts fight, wallets close.
Obinna worries about perception abroad. “Think about the diaspora operators or foreign investors looking at Nigeria from the outside. If they see an unstable system where authorities are constantly at odds, they will decide we are unfit for business and take their capital elsewhere. We shouldn’t be undermining our own regulatory authorities in front of the global market. All parties need to sit at the table and find a middle ground. This confusion even affects home-grown, innovative startups like ours; we shouldn’t feel confused on arrival just because the regulators haven’t settled their jurisdictional disputes. We don’t need a fight for control, we need a National Gaming Treaty that respects state autonomy while centralising the technical oversight that keeps the industry safe.”
His proposed solution sounds diplomatic. Respect state autonomy. Centralise technical oversight and remove turf wars. The aim is harmony, not dominance.
Tax reform and breathing room
While regulation remains unsettled, taxation has shifted decisively. Nigeria’s Tax Act 2025 removed VAT on gambling stakes. For operators, that move changes daily arithmetic. And for players, it alters perceived value.
Obinna calls it transformative. “The removal of VAT on stakes is a landmark victory because it shifts the focus from taxing the ‘effort’ to taxing the ‘outcome.’ For operators, this is a massive win for compliance, removing a 7.5% tax from every single bet-slip eliminates a huge accounting headache and makes it much easier to stay transparent with the government. This change directly impacts pricing as well – it’s essentially a price cut for the punter. When you stop taxing the stake, the ‘Return to Player’ (RTP) increases, keeping more money in their pockets and driving the high volume we need to stay competitive. Ultimately, this ‘Volume over Margin’ strategy will actually boost tax revenue. By making the legal market more attractive than the black market, the state might lose the immediate VAT. Additionally, they will gain much more through increased Corporate Income Tax as the total pool of profitable, legal operators grows.”
His logic follows simple math. Lower friction attracts more users. Higher volume expands the taxable base, and compliance becomes easier to measure. It also narrows the gap with illegal operators. Players chase better returns. Legal platforms now look more attractive.
Don’t just read the news — stay ahead of it. Subscribe HERE to SiGMA’s Top 10 News countdown for stories shaping iGaming’s future, weekly insights from the world’s biggest iGaming community, and exclusive subscriber-only offers.
