Election betting is prohibited under Indian gambling laws. However, the offshore crypto prediction platform Polymarket is currently hosting real-money markets on the outcomes of India’s 2026 state assembly elections, allowing users worldwide to trade contracts tied to results in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry. Polymarket lists market questions like “Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?” and “Which party will win the Tamil Nadu Assembly election?” and allows users worldwide to buy and sell contracts using cryptocurrency based on these outcomes.
These platforms operate outside Indian jurisdiction and remain accessible because Indian authorities have not blocked access or issued formal advisories targeting them.
SiGMA News tested access from Indian internet connections and confirmed that Polymarket remains accessible without the use of virtual private networks (VPNs).
Elections due between March and May 2026
India is preparing for state elections in 2026. Formal polling schedules have yet to be announced, but voting is widely expected between March and May.
In Assam, voters will elect 126 members to the Legislative Assembly before the current term concludes in May 2026. Kerala’s 140-seat Assembly will also complete its five-year term in May. Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are due to hold elections in the same period, while West Bengal must conduct its 294-seat Assembly election on or before early May 2026.
Trading on Polymarket
In the Assam market on Polymarket, traders overwhelmingly price the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the most likely winner, with it showing roughly 87 percent implied probability of winning the most seats, while parties like the Indian National Congress (INC) and Communist Party of India (CPI) lag far behind. This market has about $6,240 in total trading volume, indicating a modest level of betting activity among participants.
In West Bengal, the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) is currently the favourite with roughly 66 percent implied odds, followed by the BJP at about 29 percent, and smaller shares for parties like BGPM and CPI, this market has seen around $1,735 in volume.
In Puducherry, trading is more fragmented with the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) and BJP among the notable positions, and this market has seen about $8,389 in volume.
In the southern states, the Kerala Legislative Assembly Election market currently shows the Indian National Congress (INC) with the highest implied odds (around 69 percent) of winning the most seats, followed by the CPI(M) and other smaller parties; total trading volume here is about $2,461.
Meanwhile, the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election market is significantly more active with about $28,446 in volume, where the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leads with approximately 60 percent implied probability, and the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) also holds a sizeable portion of market pricing.
These volumes represent the aggregate dollars traded on each market and give a sense of how much betting activity has occurred around each state’s election outcome so far.
Polymarket did not respond to SiGMA’s request for comment at the time of publication.
Demand persists despite domestic restrictions
Japneet Singh Sethi, an iGaming strategist, told SiGMA News in an exclusive conversation that it is unsurprising that global crypto platforms list Indian political events.
“It’s common for global prediction and crypto-based platforms to list regional political or event markets, particularly in large democracies like India where public interest is high,” he said. “Offshore platforms operate outside Indian jurisdiction, which creates an enforcement asymmetry. They may be technically accessible, even if not legally sanctioned within India.”
In August 2025, India’s Parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 (PROGA), and it received presidential assent on 22 August. PROGA established a national legal framework for online gaming that aimed to promote esports, social and educational games while protecting users from financial harm, addiction and fraud by prohibiting online real-money gaming and related financial transactions and empowering authorities with enforcement and penalty powers. It also set the stage for a central regulator to oversee compliance and safeguard players.
After PROGA was enacted, India’s regulated real-money gaming sector faced increased scrutiny, higher taxation and tighter compliance requirements over the past year. Domestic platforms that allowed opinion trading or event-based speculation came under pressure from regulators and law enforcement agencies, and many operators suspended real-money offerings, paused operations or shifted focus to other products amid uncertainty over enforcement and regulatory friction.
“Offshore platforms operate outside Indian jurisdiction, which creates an enforcement asymmetry.”
– Japneet Singh Sethi, iGaming strategist
Sethi argued that offshore activity reflects sustained consumer demand rather than regulatory endorsement.
“While the Indian RMG businesses have faced policy tightening and taxation challenges, offshore growth reflects demand persistence. The long-term impact will depend on whether policymakers choose stricter enforcement or clearer regulatory pathways.”
In other words, if domestic operators face restrictions while offshore crypto platforms remain accessible, the competitive balance may tilt away from regulated Indian companies.
Wagering by another name
From a legal standpoint, experts say crypto election prediction markets closely resemble wagering.
Rishi Anand, Partner at DSK Legal, a law firm, explained to SiGMA News that Indian regulators would likely examine the substance of the activity rather than its technological wrapper.
“From an Indian law perspective, crypto-based election prediction markets would likely be characterised as wagering on an uncertain event since participants are staking money on outcomes outside their control and would fall within the prohibitory framework of the Public Gambling Act, 1867 and corresponding state gambling laws,” Anand said.
He added that Indian regulators typically adopt a substance-over-form approach, so labelling the activity as a prediction market or settling it in cryptocurrency does not change its essential character.
“When it comes to offshore crypto platforms offering election betting, enforcement is rarely about chasing the entity abroad.”
– Rishi Anand, Partner at DSK Legal
“Where such platforms operate offshore but remain accessible in India, participation may also trigger foreign exchange and anti-money laundering (AML) considerations, particularly where transactions intersect with regulated Indian entities. In substance, these operate as offshore wagering mechanisms, regardless of the technological overlay or the use of crypto as a settlement mechanism.”
The primary gambling statute, the Public Gambling Act, 1867, predates the internet but renders wagering agreements void. Gambling is a state subject under India’s Constitution, and several states have enacted their own parallel laws prohibiting betting.
No single statute, but layered exposure
India does not currently have a statute aimed specifically at offshore crypto prediction platforms. However, Anand notes that exposure can arise under multiple laws.
“There is no single Indian statute that directly governs participation in offshore crypto-based prediction platforms. The exposure instead arises under a combination of laws,” he said.
He pointed to the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, which governs cross-border fund flows, and the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002, which imposes anti-money laundering obligations on crypto intermediaries and financial entities.
Anand also referred the PROGA, 2025, which reflects legislative intent to prohibit online money games, although implementation details and enforcement mechanisms remain in development.
“While there may be no statute targeting offshore crypto prediction markets, they are far from being beyond the reach of Indian regulation,” he said.
Enforcement tools available to government
According to Anand, enforcement in the digital era rarely involves pursuing an offshore entity directly. Instead, regulators focus on domestic choke points.
“When it comes to offshore crypto platforms offering election betting, enforcement is rarely about chasing the entity abroad,” he said. “The Government has multiple enforcement levers available, from invoking Section 69A of the IT Act to block access, to directing app stores and intermediaries to delist platforms, and disrupting payment and crypto on-ramps through AML action under Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).”
He emphasised that the real leverage lies in controlling digital gateways such as internet service providers, app stores and financial rails.
“Once those choke points are regulated, participation becomes practically impossible, regardless of where the platform is incorporated. In practice, modern enforcement is less about physical jurisdiction and more about controlling digital access points and financial infrastructure.”
Indian authorities have previously blocked numerous offshore betting websites in other contexts, particularly those linked to sports wagering. Applying similar tools to crypto-based political prediction markets would require coordinated regulatory action.
SEBI’s raises red flag
India’s capital markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), has also weighed in on opinion trading platforms.
On 29 April 2025, SEBI issued a public advisory stating that these platforms are neither recognised stock exchanges nor registered under securities law. The advisory noted that such contracts may resemble derivatives, which would violate the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
“Such platforms are liable to face action for violation in that case. Recognised stock exchanges are advised to initiate appropriate action for such violations. Even in this case none of the investor protection mechanisms will be available,” the regulator said.
The regulator has also clarified that if any instrument traded on such platforms were to qualify as a security under Indian law, operating without registration would attract regulatory action.
Probo halts real-money operations
In August 2025, India-based opinion trading platform Probo suspended its real-money gaming operations after the passage of the PROGA.
The company informed users that it had paused recharge activities and urged withdrawals after Parliament cleared legislation proposing a nationwide prohibition on online money games. Authorities have reportedly frozen assets linked to the company as part of investigations under anti-money laundering and gambling provisions.
Probo had also faced temporary suspensions in certain states under state-level gambling laws. Its operational pause underscores the tightening environment for domestic platforms that allow users to trade on uncertain real-world events.
The contrast with offshore crypto platforms remains stark. While Indian companies confront tax demands, asset freezes and regulatory scrutiny, international platforms continue to list Indian political events without a visible enforcement response.
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