Football betting frequency was “16 per cent to 24 per cent higher” during World Cup matches shown on a UK channel carrying gambling advertising than during games shown on a broadcaster without such adverts, according to a study by University of Sheffield researchers.
The “quasi-experimental” paper examined betting behaviour during the group stage of the 2022 Qatar FIFA World Cup, using the split between the two broadcast channels, ITV and the BBC, as a natural comparison: ITV carries commercial advertising, including gambling ads around live sport, while the BBC does not.
Researchers tracked 365 men in England aged 18 to 45 who bet on football and planned to watch at least some World Cup fixtures. Participants reported their betting activity each day during the tournament’s group stage.
The authors also found that participants were “22 per cent to 33 per cent more likely to place a football bet” during matches that contained television gambling advertising. The findings add to the evidence base around how advertising exposure may affect betting behaviour during major sporting events, as operators, broadcasters and policymakers prepare for the 2026 World Cup.
ITV and BBC split offered natural comparison
The researchers wrote that the setup created “a unique opportunity to use ITV as a proxy for television gambling advertising exposure.”
They also said their approach helped reduce one of the usual difficulties in advertising research: separating whether advertising changes behaviour or whether people already inclined to gamble are simply more likely to notice advertising.
“Because viewers cannot choose which broadcaster televises a given match, self-selection bias is minimised,” the paper said.
The study found that match characteristics were broadly similar across the two broadcasters, including England games, evening fixtures, weekend matches, match length and relative FIFA ranking differences between teams.
Advertising was not shown during the match itself. Under the industry’s “whistle-to-whistle” rules, sports betting adverts are restricted around live sport and cannot appear from five minutes before kick-off until five minutes after the final whistle. The researchers said the number of gambling adverts on ITV games ranged from four to six, mostly during pre-match build-up.
Findings land amid market shift
The findings come as the UK gambling advertising market is itself changing. A recent report prepared for the Betting and Gaming Council forecasts that total gambling advertising spend will reach almost £1.9bn (€2.2bn) by autumn 2026. But that growth is expected to be driven by unregulated firms rather than licensed operators.
According to the report, regulated gambling companies are forecast to cut advertising spend by 9.2 per cent, while unregulated operators are projected to increase spend by 32 per cent.
“Within display media, legacy channels (predominantly associated with regulated operators) are expected to decline sharply (-11.5 per cent) following the introduction of new taxes on gambling profits,” the report said. “In contrast, online media, which includes a significant proportion of unregulated operators, is projected to grow by 14.0 per cent.”
Licensed UK operators now face the dual challenge of complying with domestic advertising rules while competing for attention against offshore or unlicensed brands online, as the black market is gaining ground in sponsorship. “Unregulated firms are set to account for all growth in sponsorship spend this year and next and will account for more than half of spend by October 2027,” the report warned.
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