2026 World Cup expected to generate more than US$50 billion in betting
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has all the ingredients to become the largest sports betting event in history. Featuring 48 national teams, 104 matches and a longer duration than previous editions, the tournament hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada is expected to generate more than US$50 billion (BRL 252.5 billion) in wagers worldwide, according to projections by investment bank Macquarie. Despite the championship taking place on North American soil and the regulated US market having grown rapidly in recent years, analysts believe the country will continue to account for only a small share of global betting volume.
The estimate stands out because it challenges a common market perception. Since the repeal of the federal PASPA law in 2018, dozens of US states have authorised regulated sports betting. Growth has accelerated, driven by major operators such as FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. Even so, Macquarie expects the United States to account for only around 5 per cent of the total global betting volume related to the World Cup.
According to Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging & Theatres Analyst at the financial institution, even significant growth in sports betting in the United States would have a limited impact on the tournament’s overall global projections. This is because the World Cup is a truly international event, with strong participation from traditional betting markets in Europe, Latin America, Asia and Africa, where football has much greater relevance than in the United States.
More matches, more betting, but not necessarily more money per match
One of the most interesting findings of the study is that the average betting volume per match is expected to remain close to the levels recorded during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Macquarie estimates around US$500 million (BRL 2.53 billion) wagered per match, a figure similar to that observed during the previous edition.
At first glance, this may seem contradictory. After all, the 2026 tournament will feature 40 more matches than the 2022 World Cup. In addition, the global sports betting market has grown significantly over the past four years, driven by regulatory expansion and the increasing popularity of products such as live betting, player prop betting and same-game parlays, which allow bettors to combine multiple markets into a single wager.
The explanation lies precisely in the expanded schedule. With more matches spread across several weeks, total betting volume is likely to increase, but the money wagered may be distributed more evenly among games. In other words, there will be more betting opportunities, but that does not necessarily mean that each individual match will attract a much larger betting volume than in previous editions.
The true size of the global market
Macquarie’s projections also help illustrate the scale of the global sports betting industry. According to the bank’s methodology, global legal sports betting handle across all sports ranged from US$600 billion (BRL 3.13 trillion) to US$700 billion (BRL 3.65 trillion) in 2022. During the World Cup, approximately half of all bets placed globally are estimated to have been placed on tournament matches.
Another important detail is that the figures account only for regulated and legal markets. The estimate does not include betting activity conducted through offshore operators or unlicensed platforms, which continue to represent a significant portion of betting activity in many countries. This means that the total amount wagered during the World Cup could be substantially higher than the projected US$50 billion (BRL 252.5 billion).
The industry itself recognises that accurately measuring the size of the global market remains challenging. In many regions, particularly in countries where sports betting is still not clearly regulated, a large share of activity takes place outside official channels.
Prediction markets remain an unknown factor
Another interesting point raised by the analysis involves prediction markets, a segment that has gained prominence in the United States in recent years through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Macquarie decided not to include this type of activity in its World Cup projections. According to the institution, there is still no reliable estimate of the volume that could be traded on these platforms during the tournament.
Even so, Beynon believes these markets are likely to grow, especially in US states where traditional sports betting apps are not yet available. The expectation is that many users who do not have legal access to sportsbooks will use prediction markets as an alternative. Consumers already accustomed to online betting operators, meanwhile, are expected to continue using traditional betting products.
Brazil expected to play a leading role
Although Macquarie’s study has a global focus, the 2026 World Cup also represents an important opportunity for emerging markets such as Brazil. The country will experience its first World Cup with a regulated sports betting market in place following the implementation of the new licensing framework introduced in 2025.
Industry expectations are that the tournament will serve as a testing ground for operators, regulators and consumers. In addition to Brazilians’ natural enthusiasm for football, the local market now benefits from licensed companies, clearer advertising rules and consumer protection mechanisms that were not in place during previous World Cups.
Industry observers believe that the combination of regulation, greater bettor confidence and extensive media coverage could make the 2026 World Cup an important moment in strengthening the reputation and relevance of Brazil’s sports betting market.
Financial impact
Macquarie estimates that the event could generate an increase of between 2 per cent and 5 per cent in the EBITDA of some of the leading global operators in 2027, reflecting the commercial benefits obtained during the tournament. Among the companies best positioned to benefit from this growth are Flutter Entertainment, Super Group and Rush Street Interactive.
With more than 100 matches spread across six weeks, a global audience in the billions and an increasingly broad regulated market, the 2026 FIFA World Cup brings together virtually all the elements needed to break records for betting volume. Even though the United States is hosting the tournament and has significantly expanded its betting market in recent years, the figures show that the real driver of World Cup betting remains football’s global appeal. It is precisely this characteristic that is expected to make the tournament the largest sports betting event ever recorded.
This article was first published on the Portuguese SiGMA News page on 16 June 2026.
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