Ireland restricts prediction markets as European scrutiny grows
Two major prediction market operators have restricted access for users in Ireland following intervention by the national gambling regulator, as European authorities are increasingly treating event-based contract platforms as gambling services subject to national licensing rules or restrictions.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) has intervened against two major prediction market operators, resulting in both platforms restricting access to their services from Ireland. In comments provided to SiGMA News, the GRAI said one operator had voluntarily geoblocked its platform, while a second had added Ireland to its list of restricted jurisdictions following engagement with the regulator.
The development places Ireland within a growing European regulatory push against prediction markets operating without local gambling authorisation. However, Ireland’s approach is broader than an action against one named platform. The GRAI has made clear that any prediction market providing activities that legally amount to betting must obtain the appropriate Irish licence.
Two platforms restrict Irish users
According to the GRAI, the first operator introduced controls preventing people located in Ireland from creating new accounts. Existing accounts identified as Irish are also restricted from depositing funds or opening new positions.
“Following intervention by the GRAI, a major prediction market has geoblocked its service, which means that it has voluntarily restricted access to its platform from Ireland,” the authority told SiGMA News. “Controls have been implemented to prevent the creation of new accounts by users located in Ireland, and accounts identified as located in Ireland are currently restricted from depositing funds or opening new positions. No new participation is permitted for users of that platform located in Ireland.”
The regulator said a second major prediction market had also agreed to geoblock Irish users. “A second major prediction market also agreed to geoblock access to its platform for persons in Ireland, which is now implemented. It has recently amended its terms of use to include Ireland as a restricted jurisdiction following engagement with the GRAI,” the Authority commented.
The authority’s comments indicate that both operators complied voluntarily following regulatory engagement. Nevertheless, the GRAI warned that it could seek court orders where operators fail to comply. “If necessary, the GRAI will seek orders in the High Court to enforce compliance,” it said.
Ireland’s new licensing regime
The interventions follow the commencement of Ireland’s new remote betting licensing regime on 1 July 2026. From that date, operators providing remote betting or remote betting intermediary services to consumers in Ireland must hold a licence issued by the GRAI under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024.
The regulator has expressly stated that prediction markets offering betting activities fall within the legal definition of a remote betting intermediary. On its licensing guidance page, the GRAI also says that providing a betting activity without the necessary licence is a serious offence. It adds that prediction markets providing betting activities are considered remote betting intermediaries and are therefore required to hold a licence.
“Prediction market operators wishing to offer betting services to consumers in Ireland are required to obtain the appropriate licence under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024, before making those services available in the State. Those without a licence should take appropriate steps to prevent consumers in Ireland from accessing their platforms. Failure to do so may result in enforcement action,” the regulator told SiGMA News.
Black market investigations underway
The GRAI described unlicensed prediction markets as part of its wider focus on black market gambling. “Black market gambling is an area of major focus for GRAI, and that includes unlicensed prediction markets that provide betting activities,” it said.
The authority also confirmed that it has several active investigations into suspected black market gambling activity. “The GRAI has a number of live investigations open in relation to black market gambling, with a view to potential prosecutions in due course,” it explained.
It is not yet clear whether those investigations involve the two prediction markets that have already restricted Irish access or other operators continuing to serve the country without authorisation. The possibility of High Court proceedings and future prosecutions suggests that voluntary geoblocking may be only the first stage of Ireland’s enforcement strategy.
Polymarket faces mounting pressure across Europe
Ireland’s move comes as Polymarket faces tighter restrictions in several European countries. In France, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) ordered internet providers to block access to the platform, saying it was offering illegal gambling services. The decision came after earlier attempts to restrict access were judged not to be effective enough.
Romania has also treated Polymarket as an unlicensed gambling platform. The country’s gambling authority added it to a blacklist, and a Romanian court later refused to pause that decision while the case was ongoing.
Italy has taken similar action against Polymarket. The platform was added to the country’s blocked-sites list over concerns that it was operating outside Italian gambling rules. The site had previously been blocked in 2025, before the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency (ADM) restored access in December following an administrative appeal. That decision covered parts of the website unrelated to prediction market trading.
The cases do not represent a single coordinated European prohibition. Gambling regulation remains largely national, meaning each authority acts under its own legislation, licensing system and enforcement powers. Nevertheless, a consistent regulatory position is beginning to emerge, where prediction markets allow users to put money on the outcome of future events, European regulators are increasingly prepared to treat those services as gambling.
A classification battle with practical consequences
The regulatory debate surrounding prediction markets has often centred on whether they should be classified as gambling products, financial instruments or a separate form of information market. Operators and supporters argue that market prices can aggregate public information and provide useful forecasts about elections, economic developments, sporting events and other outcomes. Regulators are more concerned with how the products operate in practice.
Users place funds at risk, take positions on uncertain events and can profit or lose money depending on whether an outcome occurs. From the perspective of authorities such as the GRAI, those characteristics can bring the activity within existing betting legislation.
The way a platform is classified matters. If it is treated as a financial exchange, it falls under financial regulation. If it is treated as gambling, it may need a separate licence in every country where it operates and must follow rules on consumer protection, money laundering, advertising and responsible gambling. Because Europe has no single system for prediction markets, access can be restricted country by country.
Ireland draws its line
Ireland has now drawn a relatively clear regulatory line. Prediction markets are not automatically prohibited, but platforms offering betting activities to Irish consumers must obtain the relevant GRAI licence before entering the market. Operators without a licence are expected to prevent access from Ireland. Those that fail to do so may face enforcement proceedings, including applications to the High Court.
As France, Romania and Italy intensify action against Polymarket, Ireland’s intervention adds to the growing pressure on prediction market operators across Europe, which must comply with national gambling rules, withdraw from individual countries or risk formal enforcement.
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